Crossbred and Ayrshire bulls are relatively unchanged.
The New Zealand Animal Evaluation unit of DairyNZ said Jersey bulls will fill 70% of the top 200 BW bulls in 2019 and Holstein Friesian just 5%, with crossbreds making up the remainder.
It released revised economic values used to calculate BWs ahead of the normal February time because of the big, unprecedented changes and to help farmers in their breeding selections before mating and AI season.
LIC NZ markets general manager Malcolm Ellis said the roster of Premier Sires this spring will reflect the 2019 BWs and the higher importance of fat.
The big trend to using fresh semen, which accounted for 80% of domestic sales last breeding season, will help LIC cater for the anticipated shift in demand when rostering bull collections.
As breed choice is usually firm, he expects farmers will look more favourably on the higher fat-producing bulls within breeds.
In that regard NZ is very well placed for variety compared with other countries where high-volume Holsteins are dominant.
Ellis thinks farmers’ choices will be expressed more in the Kiwicross types, away from the majority Holstein Friesian dominance to genetics balance, F8J8.
LIC will not pay any more for Jersey genetics. As a farmer-owned co-operative its policy is to pay evenly across all breed types.
“DairyNZ has been very responsible in releasing the information early as in the past there hasn’t been a lot of change and the valued component ratio (VCR) is worked out on a three-year rolling average, which acts to moderate the changes.
“For that reason, we already know that the next VCR announcement will increase above the current 1.30, even further in favour of fat.”
The VCR of 1.30 means Fonterra’s payment for fat will be 130% of the payment for milk protein.
Over several decades until the comparatively recent boost in demand for milk fat, milk protein was always more valuable to dairy processors.
As all dairy breeds and crossbreeds produce more fat than protein in their milk, the trend towards fat is helping keep the farmgate milk price above $6/kg milksolids.
Fat (20%) and protein (19%) are the biggest components of the BW calculations for 2019. This year they were 16% and 23% respectively.
DairyNZ strategy and investment leader Bruce Thorrold said the calves born in spring 2019 will have the 2019 BW values.
NZ is well-placed to cater for the increased demand for milk fat products because of the strong influence of Jersey genes in the national herd.
The high genetic variation in that trait in the herd enables farmers to respond quickly to market signals.
“Breeding high BW cows is vital for farm profit so, given these shifts in BW, all farmers need to be thinking about their breed choice as well as individual bulls.
“Farmers can be confident that BW is identifying the most profitable genetics for our grazing systems, whether they are looking for the best bull team or best bull within a breed.”
CRV Ambreed said the higher demand for milk fat was expected and is already built into the company’s own indexes.
“Genetics with higher fat BVs is already in the pipeline,” product manager Peter van Elzakker said.
Dairy statistics for 2016-17 did not show a trend towards Holstein Friesian, crossbred or Jersey genetics but less dairy and more beef semen was used.
That was in line with a stable dairy herd and more demand for dairy-beef suitable animals.
“For this year’s orders and sales we have still seen no move towards more Jersey animals.
“Our surveying shows that herd health, animal welfare and the environment are high in the minds of farmers when making breeding decisions.
“BW is not the main driver but the added value of the bobby calf through beef does affect breed choices.”
