Wednesday, April 24, 2024

GDT prices slip, WMP resists

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Dairy commodity prices slipped at last night’s Global Dairy Trade auction but the whole milk powder price resisted the slide.
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The overall GDT price index was down 0.5% but the WMP price was up 0.3%.

The decline was driven by falls in prices for anhydrous milk fat, skim milk powder and cheddar.

Whole milk powder, butter and casein prices lifted.

SMP had the biggest fall, with its index down 3%.

Medium heat SMP to ship in April was down 1.8% to a price of US$1930/t. The NZX Dairy Derivatives market had expected a 1.5% lift.

SMP prices are under pressure from high stock levels in both Europe and the United States and thus strong competition from those regions.

Europe still has close to 380,000t of SMP stored through its intervention programme.

The US had 74,071t of non-fat dry milk stored at the end of December, up 15% on a year earlier. 

New Zealand-sourced SMP did maintain its premium over European SMP last night when European medium heat SMP sold for about US$1550/t.

The AMF price index fell 1.9%. Regular grade AMF to ship in April was down 2.1%, a little less than the 2.5% fall the Derivatives market had expected.

Demand for the commodity has been keeping AMF prices high but AMF has been overpriced relative to butter on a milk fat content basis for quite some time.

The fall in AMF prices and lift in butter prices now has the stream returns for the two commodities relatively aligned, AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said.

The butter price index lifted 1.1%. Unsalted butter to ship in April was up 1.6%.

The largest price increases were in near-dated contracts, indicating buyers are aiming to cover short term needs.

NZ’s butter supply is tight as a result of falling milk production and AMF being a more attractive commodity for processors.

Butter prices have also been ramping up in Europe in recent weeks as buyers there are concerned about supply running short in the same way it did last year.

Prices for WMP to ship in April eased.

The price for regular grade WMP to ship in April was down 1.1%. Ahead of the event the NZX Dairy Derivatives market had expected a 0.6% lift in that grade and contract of product.

“Even though the WMP result was not strong this time around, the average WMP price is 8% higher than it was a month ago.

“WMP offer volumes were up 1.9% from forecasts for this event with Fonterra indicating that its milk supply was up slightly.

“Confidence was strong ahead of the event that China will still come to the market despite the Chinese New Year holiday.

“North Asia was the strongest presence but there were fewer winning bidders than at the February 6 event,” Kilsby said.

Cheddar prices were down 1.3%. Prices for product to ship in May, June and July were stronger but were outweighed by falls in prices for product to ship in March and April.

Oceania processors have found it difficult to compete in the global market for cheddar recentl, as they face strong competition from the European Union and the US.

Both the EU and the US have been directing their incremental milk into cheese as their milk production has grown.

There were 114 winning bidders and 20,256t of products sold.

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