Fifty years later this antithetical quote could apply to how agricultural dependent New Zealand meets its international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially following a report in last week’s Farmers Weekly that to be carbon neutral by 2050 could cost the economy a trillion dollars.
Given its disproportionate agricultural emissions the sector will be required to shoulder some of the load for NZ to meet its Paris Agreement emissions reductions.
But to paraphrase the American officer, we cannot destroy NZ’s economy to save it, and worryingly the Government appears to be getting advice where that could happen.
There is a view the Ministry for the Environment’s Zero Carbon Bill economic analysis, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment’s report on livestock methane emissions and the Productivity Commission saying 2.8m ha of forestry is needed for NZ to be carbon neutral are all short on extensive financial analysis, especially given their subject.
AgFirst economist Phil Journeaux certainly felt concerned at what he saw as failure to acknowledge the economic impact of a low-carbon economy and the rejection of independent financial analysis on the subject.
Let us not forget NZ accounts for 0.22% of global emissions yet the United States (14.75%) and Russia (4.86%) have not ratified the Paris Accord so are not obligated to reduce their emissions.
Both China (25.9%) and India (6.43%) have favourable conditions to meet their targets.
Given concessions to the world’s biggest polluters and others refusing to comply, any NZ savings will have minuscule global impact.
NZ should address its emissions not by cutting production but preserving its economic strength to fund research and technology where permanent gains will come from and that requires accurate forecasting.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called climate change her generation’s nuclear-free moment. It is in nobody’s interest if tackling that moment turns us into a low-emitting but bankrupt economy.
Neal Wallace
