Tourism is certainly enjoying prosperity but the jobs are predominantly low paid and seasonal, staff are transient and the public are far from endeared by the mass of visitors. Numbers can drop quickly if fuel prices rise or there is a security scare and society remains unconvinced at the ability of visiting drivers, the environmental impact from freedom campers and pressure on infrastructure.
The consistent performance of the primary sector has been highlighted by the latest Statistics NZ data. Gross domestic product for the June 2018 quarter grew 1%, of which agriculture, forestry and fishing expanded 4.1%, driven by increased production and export prices.
Even when the economy is not performing all that well, evident by the record $1.5 billion monthly trade deficit for August, the sector keeps on trucking, contributing in that period a massive 9.9% increase in meat exports, 17% from dairy and 18% from forestry.
All this reinforces the none-too subtle message that in business, as in sport, consistency will always win but hamstringing a sector with compliance and cost risks damages the wider economy and spending and investment plans. It is a message, many could argue, that is not fully understood in Wellington.
Plans to plant a billion trees might be a great sound bite but where is the analysis on the impact on primary production or rural communities? Similarly, making farmers accountable for greenhouse gas emissions makes a great slogan but not having the ability to measure emissions from individual farms makes it farcical as a tool to change behaviour.
Perhaps the sector has been the architect of its own problems by being too successful, giving society year-round access to milk, fresh meat, vegetables and fruit regardless of the challenges farms and growers face.
Neal Wallace
