At a recent Feilding calf sale those bred on the vendor’s property were $30 to $40 ahead of calves that weren’t.
A price advantage for cattle bought in the paddock has also emerged as buyers want to know the vendor they are dealing with.
The bull slaughter season has started and, apart from the Christmas shutdown, will average more than 25,000 a week from mid-November till late January.
The absence of drought in recent years and better returns have seen greater numbers of South Island dairy farmers retain and rear calves but with the yearling price falling early buyers are reluctant to enter the market, Brick said.
That has left an abundance of unsold cattle, including yearling bulls.
Dry conditions have slowed North Island stock finishing so farmers are delaying re-entering the market.
Yearling bulls that were selling for $3/kg earlier in the year are now closer to $2.50/kg.
A Rabobank report on animal protein warns rising global beef supplies combined with soft United States demand could pressure prices for a further year but a favourable exchange rate could temper farmgate prices.
However, sheep meat prices are expected to remain strong.
The bank’s animal protein analyst Blake Holgate said NZ beef exports to China have grown from 10% to 23% in the last five years and weak US demand will make China become an even more significant market.
A lower beef and dairy cow cull could see NZ beef production fall 3% this season.
China and US demand for sheep meat should underpin another year of strong prices but at 19 million it will be the lowest lamb kill on record because of the sheep flock continuing to shrink.
“Despite some consumer resistance to high prices and the potential for Brexit to disrupt NZ sheep meat exports into the United Kingdom and European Union market, continuing strong demand in NZ’s other key export markets, particularly China and the US, is expected to hold farmgate prices in a similar range to what was experienced last season.”
Holgate said global production of animal protein is expected to grow through 2019, albeit slowly, with pork and wild-catch seafood declining but poultry and beef growing slowly.
The impact on beef flows from the US-China trade war could be significant to NZ farmers as US exporters look for new markets.
Global feed prices are expected to rise through 2019, supported by robust demand and tight supplies.