It is a shift in diet that has the planet as much as human health firmly in mind but has been challenged on grounds New Zealand is already well down the path to providing the planet with a sustainable diet.
The report, released this month after three years of research, said human diets must change as much to save the planet as ourselves as the global population continues to swell towards 10 billion by 2050.
The world farms an area the size of South America and grazes an area the size of Africa.
But failing to shift agricultural practices as the population grows will require a further expanse of land the size of Canada to meet global demand.
The report targets changes in diet and by default food production, which, it claims, will put healthy food production within the boundaries of the planet’s capabilities. It is a change that is achievable but requires major dietary adjustments.
They include cutting global consumption of red meat and sugar by more than 50% while doubling the consumption of nuts, fruits, vegetables and legumes.
It acknowledges the need for some regions to make more significant changes than others.
In North America, where 6.5 times the recommended amount of red meat is consumed, the change will be greater than, for example, southern Asia, where people eat only half the recommended amount.
The report notes there is a need for flexibility to accommodate various food types, agricultural systems, cultural traditions and individual dietary preferences.
Beef + Lamb NZ market insights officer Jeremy Baker believes NZ has been caught in the slipstream of the report’s interpretation of intensive livestock production systems, blamed for a significant portion of the resource pressure on global food supplies.
“Most of what they are analysing are the high-intensity, highly populated grain-fed systems that often divert grain into meat production. These are often also systems that are highly subsidised and tend to place volume over value.”
Typically, stock here are fed grass-based inputs, either as straight grass or baled as silage or hay, often on land that has little alternative use because of its contour while also having 1.4 million hectares of native bush country within its boundaries.
The Lancet report calls for greater agricultural biodiversity, something Baker maintains the sector is already achieving with the extensive native bush area on NZ dry stock farms and the work continuing to protect waterways and lift on-farm biodiversity.
He also points to NZ’s major step change in the 1980s that deregulated farming and as a result the country now has a sheep meat sector that emits 30% less greenhouse gas than 30 years ago while producing the same amount of meat from a national flock half the size it was then.
“We are also among the lowest water users when it comes to production.
“We are really doing all the things they want the rest of the world to do and we have had a 30-year head start.”
From a dietary perspective New Zealanders are already reducing their red meat consumption, even if not to the paltry levels of 15g of red meat a day recommended by the Lancet.
That reduction will make the most dedicated carnivores blanch. Last year New Zealanders ate about 60g of red meat a day each.
As an alternative meat protein the report also recommends about 15g a day of pork or 30g of poultry.
Recommendations for dairy intake average 250g a day and fit closely with NZ’s average intake of 230g a day.
But B+LNZ nutritionist Fiona Greig maintains the Lancet’s dietary recommendations could pose real threats for some consumers.
“I am thinking groups like young women where there is a risk of iron deficiency occurring at those consumption levels.”
She said 15g a day is a significant shift from existing healthy eating guidelines, including those of the World Cancer Research Fund, which recommends consumption of about three portions a week, equivalent to about 500g cooked or 700g fresh meat.
“This has been based on all their research and all evidence there is on red meat and links to cancer and health.”
Based on NZ’s red meat consumption of 430g a head a week, consumers here are eating close to the recommended ideal.
That figure represents a significant drop in the past decade, with overall consumption down 42%, including beef down 38%, lamb down 45% and mutton down 70%.
Greig said compiling such reports is tricky when the demands of the environment are overlaid onto human health needs and she appreciated it did acknowledge local conditions and production methods.
Her concern is too much attention will be drawn to the nuts and bolts of the Lancet protein recommendations rather than the big picture message that the planet needs to reconsider how it will feed its burgeoning population.
The report also put the spotlight on some serious nutritional issues but the recommendations risked making them worse for vulnerable consumers.
That is particularly for vitamin B12, zinc and iron in children and young females.
A more urgent need is to take stock of the population’s nutritional status before dietary standards are reconfigured.
“The last national nutritional survey was done 10 years ago and indicated deficiencies of those vital elements but we don’t have any up-to-date information.”
Sourcing the 25g of protein a day needed for an adult is not as easily achieved through plant-based products that are not as protein dense.
“For example, beans could supply the protein but the equivalent has 10 times the calorie level.
“A largely plant-based source does require very careful planning to do it properly. We have no argument with pursuing a balanced diet, of which red meat is only part, but there is also a need there for greater knowledge about how New Zealanders are eating their protein.”
There is also a risk that if people see the recommendation of 15g a day, about half a fish finger of protein, they will simply switch off to such recommendations.
“It’s all well and good for some people to eat less but there are people in the population who could well do with eating more.”
