Demand for New Zealand beef is set to remain strong amidst global disruption as local producers face a bright spring outlook.
Elevated NZ farm gate pricing over the past three months is expected to hold up with farmers heading into spring in a great position despite significant turbulence in global beef markets, according to Rabobank’s latest Global Beef Quarterly report.
RaboResearch analyst Genevieve Steven says the high pricing comes off the back of strong demand from China and suppressed beef export volumes from Australia.
Pricing across both islands is tracking well ahead of last year and currently sits 10% above the five-year average.
NZ beef exports for the first half of 2021 were 3% ahead of 2020 volumes.
Steven says while volumes to the US and Canada were down 26% and 56% respectively, exports to China rose strongly and were up by 21% on the first six months of last year.
“Although volumes were higher, export earnings for the first half of the year were back by 5% as a result of a stronger NZ dollar and greater volume going to lower-value markets,” Steven said.
NZ beef pricing is expected to remain strong through to November.
“We anticipate NZ prices will be held up by continued strong demand from the US and China,” she said.
“However, downside risks do exist with an easing of wholesale beef prices in the US, higher US cow kill, the end of their summer grilling season and the winding up of stimulus packages all having the potential to adversely impact NZ beef pricing.”
The report says government restrictions on Argentine beef exports are set to have a substantial impact on global beef trade over coming months.
The restrictions, imposed by the Argentinian government in late June with the aim of boosting domestic beef supply, limit Argentine beef exports to 50% of the average monthly volume exported from July to December 2020.
“As Argentina was the fifth largest beef exporter in 2020 and the second largest supplier to China, this cut in export volumes has the potential to have a significant impact on global beef trade,” the report said.
It is possible that some aspects of the restrictions could be eased, particularly exports to China and Israel, the country’s biggest export markets, with China accounting for 75% of Argentine beef exports in 2020.
If restrictions remain in place until the end of the year, the Rabobank Beef Quarterly predicts Argentine beef exports for 2021 could drop by 23.5% year-on-year, although the most likely scenario, whereby sales to China and Israel are maintained, would see exports fall by 9.5%.
“At this stage, Argentina’s export reduction is having little, if any, direct impact on NZ beef exports, however, it could help to provide a pricing floor in the market,” she said.
The AgriHQ Livestock Insight backs the report, suggesting there are good opportunities in the US market.
US meat cold stores are low across the board, with frozen beef supplies in particular falling steeply since February.
This aligns with normal consumption patterns, however, July beef stores have hit a 10-year low point.
This year, the US processed 2.8 million cattle, a decrease of 65,100 from year-ago levels.
More US beef is being exported, which is also driving cold store supplies lower.
From January to June 2021, 534,500 tonnes of US beef was exported, a 21% lift from year-ago volumes.
The driving cause of this lift is higher demand from Asian markets.
