While all sectors of the economy will have to play their part cutting emissions, the likely consequences for agriculture are stark, the keynote speaker at the Farmed Landscapes Research Centre workshop said.
Rees, an agriculture and climate change expert at Scotland Rural College, said emissions from the sector urgently need to be reduced but costs and inertia are significant barriers.
British economists have been looking at the cost effectiveness of different farm management strategies to help prioritise them.
Approaches that will save farmers’ money, including improved nitrogen-use efficiency, precision farming for crops, improving cattle and sheep health and loosening compacted soils and preventing soil compaction, will be among those most likely to be taken up by farmers but they won’t be enough to achieve net zero.
Afforestation is in the middle of the abatement cost curve developed to help prioritise measures.
To achieve net zero by 2050 many new technologies will need to come into play. They include soil carbon sequestration, bio-energy carbon and storage and biochar.
“We’re going to have to use a range of new technologies. We need new mitigation measures but there’s still lots of uncertainty.”
British farmers say not enough notice is taken of carbon stored in soils but Rees says it is difficult to increase carbon stocks in soils that are part of stable land use systems.
“Once you get to an equilibrium it is difficult to achieve an increase.”
Demand side approaches also need to be considered, he says.
“It’s pointless to provide whatever the consumer wants regardless of the carbon cost.”
Reduced consumption of beef, lamb and dairy products and a corresponding cut in production might be part of the answer because they could cut emissions and increase carbon uptake.
