Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Cattle prices remain steady

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Tightening domestic supplies and improving export returns will combine to help to support cattle prices, Rabobank analyst Blake Holgate says. At the same time, however, the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against the United States dollar, up nearly 6% since the start of December is seen as a factor that will continue to create headwinds for processors so prices will remain relatively stable over the next three months.
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“NZ’s total beef kill for the first three months of the 2017-18 season was 15.5% ahead of the same period last year,” Holgate said.

Cattle in many parts of the country are being killed earlier in the season than normal, with dry seasonal conditions and lower feed supplies forcing many farmers to destock.

“Since December, however, most key cattle-producing regions have received significant rainfall, restoring feed levels and slowing the supply of cattle to the processors.”

As a result, while slaughter prices eased slightly over the quarter, overall prices remained relatively firm despite a sharp increase in domestic production.

“As of early February, the North Island bull price averaged $5.30/kg and the South Island bull price averaged $5.05/kg, down 5% and 3% respectively, on November 2017.”

Rabobank’s summary of export performance said NZ’s higher production had resulted in an 18% increase in exports in Q4 2017.

“Combined with strong average values, the value of exports increased 29%, year-on-year, to $588m over the October-December quarter. This was the second-highest on record.

“Export volumes for the quarter to NZ’s largest two markets, the US and China, were up 24% and 43% respectively on the same period last season. 

“Despite the increase in export supply the average value received per tonne increased in both the US and China, indicating that demand from end-users in these two key markets remains strong.

“Japan’s tariff hike on frozen beef, however, saw the value of NZ’s exports to Japan for the quarter decline by 24% although as Japan currently takes less than 4% of NZ’s total beef exports the decline has not had a significant impact on overall export returns,” he said.

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