Big price gains for the just-completed round of yearling sales including high-end Angus, Herefords and the dairy-cross sector followed record two-year sales over winter.
“A lot of yearling bulls are being sold and a lot of them will be carried through into next year so it might mean we need a few less two-year-olds then,” NZ Farmers Livestock stud stock adviser Brent Bougen said.
“I think it will still be strong but there’s a question there.”
PGG Wrightson auctioneer and genetics adviser Cam Heggie said top two-year bulls had fetched averages of $7000-$9000.
That might have had farmers thinking they could pay $4000 for a yearling with the same early-gestation, easy-calving genetics and see it as a two-for-one opportunity.
“People have been saying for a couple of years that the two-year market needs a correction so we might see what the effect will be.”
Yearling bull prices have been 25% to 30% above this time last year, often on stock numbers up about 20% to 25%.
Dairy farmers were paying up to $3500 for young bulls, Bougen said.
“That’s quite a bit for a dairy bull.”
Herefords were a big focus for dairy farmers, especially in Waikato, Heggie said.
“What’s underpinning it is the return you can get for a four-day calf and this year you could get $460 for a 10-day calf.
“That’s an encouraging cash return in the winter when there’s not much else about.”
Along with the rise in bull prices he also reported reduced cow culling.
Farmers were seeing they could mate the cows and get $1000 for the calves the following in autumn.
Another reason for the higher yearling prices was demand from farmers who might have thought they overpaid for weaner heifers last year.
“They can put the bull to the heifer, get a calf they can finish and then fatten the heifer for processing before they cut their teeth, for a better price.’’
The trade in yearling bulls was not guaranteed, he said.
There was a lot more that could go wrong with them than there was with a two-year.
They were not fully developed structurally so faults weren’t always obvious and there was heightened risk of them breaking down because of their inexperience.
As a genetics specialist Heggie said a lot was being achieved at the top end of the meat cattle herd and a lot more remained to be done.
As an example, the AngusPure goal was the special reserve status, where the criteria was huge and a lot of animals in the programme were getting to 80% but not to the 100% where they qualified for lucrative premium payments.
“We need to keep finding the cattle that hit all the boxes,” he said.
Though beef prices would drift back and the store market had been on the dear side, Bougen expected the market to remain solid.
He was not expecting the elevated bull prices and increased mating of heifers to lead to a big increase in the total beef herd because dairy expansion meant there was not a lot of land to put extra numbers on.
