Federated Farmers grains section chairman Brian Leadley said a healthy supply of grain with prices holding firm had arable farmers crossing their fingers after the damp start to spring.
The latest Arable Industry Marketing Initiative survey of cereal growers revealed a resurgence in feed barley with planting returning to historical levels.
“The signs are better for the industry as a whole after the previous two seasons, which were indifferent,” Leadley said.
While there had been reluctance among growers to plant barley, this year’s wet spring had changed that.
“A lot of farmers have had to plant barley as they haven’t been able to plant other vegetable crops in the sodden conditions,” Leadley said.
Meanwhile, grain moving off farms was an indication of pricing positivity returning to the market.
But Leadley said yields next April could yet be compromised.
“It depends on how late planting actually was and if spring crops have been firmly established, assuming they are resilient enough to get through warm, dry spells.”
While there had been a lift in demand and price Leadley was reserved on whether that would be the case after this summer’s harvest.
“I think the end users are still cautious and may be even cash tight.
“So, if they are buying, it’s more on requirement than opportunity. I doubt most have or are thinking of filling up their silos, he said.
The long-term forecast was for a La Nina cycle.
“This may mean drought type conditions for some so I would encourage farmers to contact local suppliers to secure domestically produced cereal grain that is of a quality standard.”
In an industry that relied heavily on forecasts and trends, the AIMI survey was considered a reliable source in terms of providing comparative data and rolling averages.
“Anyone who wants to follow arable yields and what those results mean are increasingly relying on the AIMI.
“It’s a great planning tool for growers, merchants and end users who we know are using it more.”
Being able to produce credible data was proving useful for measuring whether there was a necessity for extra imports.
“As an industry we can demonstrate to the market the volume of domestic grain supply at any given time.”
The notable increase in biosecurity incursions was a logical reason for reducing imports and that promoted better outcomes for all those associated with the agriculture sector, Leadley said.
“The reality is one contaminated import can have long-term implications, especially with costs and managing it.
“You can reduce this risk by buying locally and knowing it’s from a reputable grower.”
Meanwhile, the AIMI survey indicated a leap in area planted in feed barley for harvest in 2018.
There was also a little more unsold grain around than there was at this time last year but unsold stocks of cereal grain, summed over all six crops, were estimated to have reduced by 53% between July 2017 and October 2017.
The total area expected to be sown to cereals for harvest in 2018 was up 20,000 hectares or 19% on last season, mainly because of the increased sowing of feed barley.
Feed barley area was expected to jump 59% this season with a total 55,400ha sown for harvest in 2018.
While that was a huge jump against last year, Leadley said it actually took feed barley back to more historical levels.
Malting barley area was also up but by a much smaller amount than feed quality barley.
A total of 12,320ha of malting barley was expected to be harvested this season, up 13% on last season and 90%, of it had been forward sold.
Wheat was mixed with feed wheat area up 4%, totalling 38,946ha while milling wheat area at 15,000ha was down 5%.
Given growers had struggled to sell oats this year it was understandable the survey showed plantings were back 48% for the 2018 harvest.
