Canterbury growing conditions, in particular, have been favourable and with cooler temperatures this summer crops are running a couple of weeks behind normal harvest time.
But that’s not a problem yet with crops looking good and with a spell of warm, sunny weather over the next couple of weeks harvest will kick into full swing.
“So long as the weather plays ball crunch time will be in two to three weeks, later than normal but that’s not creating any panic just yet,” he said.
“There are some beautiful looking cereal crops out there and when we get rid of these damp, overcast mornings and see some sun and more heat in 10 days or so there will be headers out everywhere.”
Farmers generally are positive about the harvest ahead.
“Most people are pretty happy. There have been some early grass crops and dryland barley harvested but there hasn’t been enough to give a real indication overall but the talk is positive that crops will come in better than last season.”
While taking the edge off some crops the damage from hail storms is not looking to be as extreme as first feared.
“Things are shaping up to be reasonable though until the headers actually get into it it’s difficult to tell but crops are looking very good.”
Early winter and dryland barley harvests have started in Canterbury and Hawke’s Bay with condition not too bad but the weather from here on will be key, Leadley said.
Growers have been trying to clean last season’s harvest out of silos but the going is tough with not many buyers.
Canterbury farmer Colin Maw said 2019 wheat was still leaving his Barrhill cropping farm last week and he doesn’t expect there will be a total clearance before the new harvest.
The latest Grain and Feed Insight report suggests it’s unlikely that all the 2019 crop will be sold before the 2020 harvest because demand is fairly weak.
That largely seems to be an issue with dairy farmers being unwilling to spend much.
Maw said a crop of early rape seed has been headed and yielded well.
“It was twice as good as last season and the Nui grass we have down is looking to be pretty good too.”
In a couple of weeks the cereal crops will be ready and then there’ll be process peas, clover and carrots.
“We’re realistically hopeful of a good average harvest this season and that will be a big improvement on last season,” Maw said.
Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures for March have continued to lift since September from about US$4.80 to US$5.60 a bushel.
Wheat prices are likely being influenced by conditions in Russia where drier-than-average conditions are expected to limit yield.
Wheat planted in the United States is estimated to be about 30.8 million acres, which continues a downward trend started in the 1980s and puts this season’s plantings at their lowest level since 1909.
The decrease in plantings is also in alignment with Russia’s shift as the largest supplier with land previously used for wheat in the US now being geared to corn and soybeans.
The market expects Western and South Australia grain harvests to be smaller than originally expected, having a positive impact on prices.
Wheat prices have lifted A$15-$20 a tonne since the beginning of January.
