Final harvest data has grain yields up by 17% compared to the 2019 harvest.
Most grain growing countries, including Australia, are reporting significant yield decreases which are expected to bode well for supportive global pricing for NZ growers.
Farmers are reporting good weather conditions for autumn and winter sowings with good crop establishment in most regions.
Plantings and intentions are similar to last season except for malting barley, down 10%, milling oats up 32% and feed oats down 14%.
Unsold stocks of feed wheat are up by 27,600 tonnes compared to this time last year, while unsold feed barley stocks are down 6,200t year-on-year.
Unsold milling oats is also down on last year.
Feed barley saw an increase in the total amount of product sold, though there was a shift towards the spot market with more sold on spot than contracted.
Following two years of buoyant supply, feed barley also saw a reduction in the total amount of product available for this season.
Both feed barley and feed wheat have seen an increase in the amount of product unsold at this stage of the season, which has been reflected with anecdotal evidence of dairy farmers not yet wanting to buy feed grains for the coming season.
Milling wheat has seen a good increase in total tonnes harvested with the amount of milling wheat still stored on-farm but contracted, matching the increase in the amount of wheat harvested.
“While the prediction for total planting area is stable, we’re seeing a bit of a shift by growers to milling wheat rather than feed wheat varieties,” arable industry grains vice-chair Brian Leadley said.
“Wrapped up in that is extra recognition for the quality of NZ wheat for domestic consumption and the work that’s been done around raising the profile of our own NZ product is paying dividends.
“In tandem with that is the varieties we’re growing are yielding quite well, (despite) not quite getting up to feed variety yields but they’re getting quite close, so if growers swing to those, they’ve got choices in the market.”
Survey responses indicate there could be a lessening of support around production of feed grains.
“That’s a little concerning as while we’ve been pushing harder on those higher-end value types we certainly still want to support feed demand,” Leadley said.
On the international scene, Australian wheat and barley prices have remained relatively stagnant in recent weeks with concern of farmers having stores of last season’s grain still unsold as this season’s harvest approaches.
There has been some support from the increased level of production risk for the coming harvest as winter rainfalls have been described as underwhelming in some regions.
Soil moisture over the entire country is not looking promising for good crop production with only small pockets of growing areas being above average for this time of the year.
This combined with winter wheat yields being reduced out of the European Union should encourage global prices to increase as Australia approaches its next harvest.
It’s a similar story in the barley market with prices remaining stagnant for most of the past two months.
After significant rainfall across most of Europe, there is now a more positive outlook for European summer crops but it’s expected there will be negative effects on some winter crop yields.
Winter wheat harvest is still underway in parts of Europe and yield reductions are becoming more apparent.
The entire EU wheat yield forecast is looking to be below the five-year average with the current average forecast sitting at 5.34t/ha.
Wheat crops in areas of central Europe haven’t recovered from dry spells during the growing season, but Germany and Poland have benefited from late-season rainfall to fill out grain crops, resulting in increased yields.
Heavy rain in parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary have significantly reduced yield forecasts ranging from 8.2% below the five-year average in Hungary and up to 27% below in Romania.
South-western Russia has experienced the hottest June-July period on record which is contributing to a decrease in wheat yield forecasts.
This lack of yield across most cereals is expected to be price supportive for global grain prices.
