This summer several predictions of rain events from either the south or the north have bypassed the province without significant rainfall.
NIWA says the soil moisture deficit for every location in Northland is 100mm or drier.
While not as severe or widespread as late January in 2020, the deficits show that recent dry months have compounded the effects of last year’s drought and not provided any meaningful recovery.
Federated Farmers Northland president John Blackwell says his province was the driest in the country and this was not unusual for this time of year.
“Both coasts of the province are very dry and there have been some localised heavy rainfalls in the centre,” Blackwell said.
“Because this is not a nationwide drought, there are acceptable prices available further south for livestock that must be moved or sold.
“We were able to make silage in spring and we have carried a lot of feed through until now.”
Maize crops are looking good at this stage and should provide reasonable yields for dairy farmers.
Coastal farmer Greta Harman, at Whananaki Charolais just north of Whangarei, says conditions were not yet as bad as last summer but February was yet to come, being the worst month for lack of rain and grass growth.
Feeding out of cattle began again two weeks ago and the Harmans have bought in big bales, as well as making some themselves.
Total rainfall during January was less than 20mm.
Normal cattle numbers have been retained for both breeding and finishing.
“Our spring was short and we started feeding out in October until some November rain boosted pasture growth before Christmas,” Harman said.
“Winter is normally our best season but there was no big boost last autumn, so we have been playing catchup since.”
Northland-wide rainfall in December was 20-40% of normal and January’s figures are expected to be similar.
WeatherWatchNZ and RuralWeather meteorologist Philip Duncan says blocking high pressures have been sitting over northern New Zealand for what seems like two years, creating the rainfall deficits.
Southerly changes in weather have petered out before reaching Northland and the highs have erected a boundary fence between the tropics and Northland.
The blocking highs were in contrast to more unsettled conditions in the south with excess rain and floods in Otago and Southland.
A few places in Northland had short, heavy downpours during December and January but these were localised and sharply defined.
“Those landowners may have got their monthly rainfall in a couple of hours – it is like the tropics,” Duncan said.
Meteorological conditions over the Southern Ocean have been very dramatic for the past year and the much deeper lows may have contributed towards blocking high pressure at the northern end of the country.
Duncan says a tropical cyclone may be forming in the southwestern Pacific Ocean with a potential to track southwards over northern NZ next week.
