Hendy has been on the advisory committee tasked with eliminating M bovis from the get-go. He also began nervously modelling the covid-19 outbreak early in March when he saw its spread through China and on to Italy.
The covid-19 crisis has given new impetus and renewed Government attention to the low-profile centre of excellence that might set New Zealand up well to deal with future disease outbreaks, both animal and human.
“M bovis is a different disease and, of course, cattle move in a different way to people. But there are similarities. Contact tracing, for example, has been absolutely key to getting ahead of M bovis and for covid-19.”
Core modelling has been based on biosecurity experiences and early in the covid-19 outbreak the Ministry for Primary Industries’ M bovis experience was called on to help get modelling data up and running.
Hendy’s team members are not disease experts but focus on the science and modelling of disease spread. They have been able to attach those skills smoothly to those who do have epidemiology and disease expertise.
Hendy’s first modelled prediction for covid-19 in NZ was quite apocalyptic, being based on grim overseas experiences where 10% of those with covid-19 are hospitalised.
It predicted NZ could have 60,000 dead if nothing was done. The outlook was dire enough to help prompt the Government to move quickly from level two to level four lockdown.
“But we have since built a short-term model due to be released soon that aims to deal with the situation we actually have now.”
He says it suggests covid-19 is controllable and every day numbers stay low steers NZ further from a grim Italy-United States scenario.
“Of course, we still have the economy to deal with but at least we would not be facing a devastated health care system that those countries will have to deal with.”
The revised model puts NZ in a pretty good position, albeit with the likelihood of regional lockdowns remaining in place for more infected areas.
“This will be of value particularly to those rural communities that may not have had a lot of cases. They could look at coming out of lockdown sooner.”
Meantime M bovis control and surveillance continues through the covid-19 crisis.
“We still have a long way to go but the signs are good and I feel optimistic we will eliminate it. It’s something we moved relatively quickly on.”
He expects M bovis cases will drop to negligible numbers over the next 18 months.
Hendy acknowledges the grief and stress M bovis herd control has bought on farmers but believes NZ chose the right path in seeking eradication.
“I think long term it is acknowledged that if it became endemic you would have to manage it with antibiotics and that is far from ideal.”
Longer term Hendy sees the covid-19 crisis boosting Government support for the Te Punaha Matatini and potential for this country to deepen its ability to model and predict disease outbreaks of all types.
“We are also at a point where we have some great leadership, including the chief science adviser, the director general of health and the prime minister.
“We have learnt fast and the Government seems to be really good at using international best practice and modelling. Compared to Australia they did have an earlier outbreak but it’s been a bit more shambolic there.”
