The report said “Holding livestock methane steady at 2016 levels would cause additional warming of 10-20% above current levels.”
Acting Climate Change Minister Eugenie Sage said the report shows NZ’s methane emissions need to reduce by about 10-22% below 2016 levels, the latest year for which emissions data is available, by 2050 with further reductions of 20-27% by 2100 to ensure methane emissions from livestock don’t contribute to more global warming.
“This is a timely and useful contribution to the ongoing process of developing NZ’s response to climate change,” Sage said.
The research looks at what further global warming would happen if methane emissions from livestock were to be stabilised at today’s level and what level methane emissions would have be to contribute no extra global warming.
“These questions have been the subject of debate during recent consultation on the Zero Carbon Bill and we are working through views and feedback expressed in the consultations at the moment,” Sage said.
Methane reductions are seen as achievable by some in agriculture, given methane output per unit of production has been in decline by about 1% a year for the last few decades, and some leaders believe they can cut methane output by as much as 30% using existing technology and best practice, Sage said.
Upton’s report forms part of a growing evidence base for how NZ will set and achieve its emissions targets.
He will issue a full report on livestock methane emissions later this year.
The Productivity Commission will soon release its final report into the opportunities and challenges of the transition to a low-emissions economy and the Biological Emissions Reference Group is completing its research into reducing agricultural emissions.
That information will be considered alongside more than 15,000 submissions received during consultation on the Zero Carbon Bill.
