The government statistics agency emphasised today’s data is provisional and is “an early, indicative estimate.” It was quick to say the numbers are not a forecast but a “helpful guidepost.”
The cumulative total value of exports to China in the period was $1.1 billion, down around $93m or 8% compared to the same four-week period a year earlier, it said.
However, “if exports to China had followed typical patterns, projections suggest the cumulative total value of exports in the past four weeks, to February 23, 2020, would have been about $1.4b,” it said.
The cumulative value of exports to all other countries – excluding China – in the four weeks was about $3.6b, down around 2% from a year earlier.
It said dairy export values to China in the past four weeks were comparable to 2019 as higher prices had compensated for lower volumes.
The quantity of meat sent to China had fallen by about half to about 20,000 tonnes in the past four weeks, it said. Meat exports to China were worth about $170m in the past four weeks, down from about $280m in the same period last year.
By weight, forestry exports to China – mainly logs – have fallen to about 1.2m tonnes in the past four weeks, compared with 1.3m tonnes in 2019.
By value, around $180m of forestry products were exported in the four weeks, down from almost $250m in the same period last year.
Seafood exports to China in the past five weeks were worth about $30m, down from $70m in the same period last year. The data includes an extra week in order to capture a better view given the nature of the exports, Stats NZ said.
When questioned about the reliability of the data, Stats NZ said it provided “fairly reliable signals.” However, it noted the February data points were “intentions to export” and said it can take some time for deleted entries to come through.
The official February trade data is due to be published on March 25.
-BusinessDesk
