Friday, March 29, 2024

Where National lost the heartland

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The National Party’s hold on the rural and regional electorates was severely weakened in the 2020 election by the tidal surge towards Labour, and some ill-timed retirements and resignations.
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National lost 14 electorates to Labour, eight of them in rural and regional areas of the country where it has been the party of power for extended periods.

The losses outside of the main urban centres were those of East Coast, Nelson, New Plymouth, Otaki, Rangitata, Tukituki, Wairarapa and Whanganui.

Some of Labour’s biggest gains came in rural districts where the party picked up 20% to 30% more votes than in 2017.

National did not exceed 40% of the party votes in any electorate and only gained more than Labour in four – Epsom, Tamaki, Taranaki-King Country and Waikato.

The Electoral Commission said in 2017 National got more votes than any other party in nearly 1000 of 1635 electoral areas.

This time it managed just 371 areas, including 85 where it secured an outright majority of more than 50% of votes cast.

In only seven neighbourhoods did National’s share of the vote actually increase.

In 2017, National won 56 electorate and list seats in Parliament with 44.45% of the popular vote, versus Labour’s 46 seats and 36.89%.

On election night figures this year, Labour had 49% and National 27%, which translated into 64 seats for Labour, enough to govern alone, and only 35 for National, a loss of 20. 

National paid the price of dissension, ill-discipline and retirements.

In five regional seats National’s MP retired – Anne Tolley in East Coast, Sarah Dowie in Invercargill, Nathan Guy in Otaki, Alastair Scott in Wairarapa and Amy Adams in Selwyn.

Nicola Grigg managed to comfortably hold on to Selwyn for National and Penny Simmonds is narrowly ahead in Invercargill; the other three went to Labour.

National was punished in Rangitata for the mess Andrew Falloon left behind, allowing Labour list MP Jo Luxton to succeed.

New National candidate Joseph Mooney managed to hang on to about 5000 of bad boy Hamish Walker’s 14,000-vote 2017 majority in Southland.

Likewise, newbie Simmonds stayed just 687 votes ahead of Labour’s Liz Craig in Invercargill, where Dowie resigned from a 5580 majority.

In all, 10 out of 26 rural and regional electorates were flipped from National to Labour – East Coast, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Nelson, New Plymouth, Otaki, Rangitata, Tukituki, Wairarapa and Whanganui.

These are seats in which National had majorities of 2000 to 8000 votes in 2017.

One election night figures, before special votes were counted, the booby prize for the biggest electorate flip went to Tim Macindoe in Hamilton West, when his 7730 majority turned into a 4425-vote win to Labour’s Gaurav Sharma, a local doctor.

Along with Harete Hipango in Whanganui, Jonathon Young in New Plymouth and Lawrence Yule of Tukituki, Macindoe is now out of Parliament because they are too low on National’s List.

National MP Barbara Kuriger, in Taranaki King County, saw 12,000 of her enormous majority go to Labour; newcomer Grigg in Selwyn has a majority of 5000 compared with Adams’ 19,640; and in Port Waikato (formerly Hunua) Andrew Bayly has to live with 4000 majority versus 19,443 before.

In Northland, where Shane Jones spent a fortune on Provincial Growth Fund projects, National’s Matt King ended election night with 742 more votes than Labour’s List MP Willow-Jean Prime.

But King only had 1389 majority in 2017.

That man deserves the National Party’s prize for tenacity for seeing off NZ First Leader Winston Peters and his deputy, Shane Jones, although King said he must wait for the special votes to be counted.

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