US milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged at 93.3 million tonnes (205.7 billion pounds). This is a 2.2% increase from 2013 US milk production which totaled 91.2 million tonnes (201.2 billion pounds). Product price forecasts have firmed across all products (cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, whey). The all milk price forecast has been raised to a range of US$21.40 to US$22.00/cwt, up from a forecast range of US$20.85 to US$21.55/cwt last month.
Global corn imports are projected to increase. The US average season-to-date corn price for farms is forecast to have a reduced price range on both high and low ends to US$4.25 to US$4.75 per bushel. US corn stocks are forecast to decrease for the 2013-14 season.
Further highlights of the report on dairy and grain from the USDA:
The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but historical data are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013. Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter. Skim-solid exports are unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese. Fat- basis imports are unchanged. Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates.
Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices are raised on higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to $22.00 per cwt.
Projected U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports. Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels. Oats imports are projected 10 million bushels lower as Canadian logistical problems reduce the availability of importable supplies. Small reductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected. The season-average farm price for corn is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel. Price ranges are similarly narrowed for sorghum and oats. The barley farm price is raised 10 cents on the low end of the range to $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel based on recently higher reported prices for feed barley.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.4 million tons higher with larger corn beginning stocks for Indonesia, higher corn production for China, and higher barley production for Australia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected sorghum output for Australia as a continuation of hot, dry conditions have sharply eroded prospects for this year’s sorghum crop.
Global coarse grain imports for 2013/14 are raised 1.3 million tons with higher corn imports for Indonesia and the European Union and higher barley imports for China. Higher expected corn and barley feeding in these countries drive the import increases. Barley feeding is also raised for Australia as drought reduces sorghum supplies and boosts demand for other feed grains. Sorghum exports are lowered for Australia. Sorghum imports are reduced for Mexico as strong demand from China has driven U.S. Gulf sorghum prices above those for corn in recent months limiting import opportunities for sorghum feeders in Mexico. Barley exports are raised for Australia with the larger crop. European Union corn exports are lowered, but more than offset by this month’s increase for the United States.
Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are raised slightly with higher corn stocks in China and Indonesia more than offsetting lower barley stocks in the European Union and the reductions in corn and oats stocks in the United States.
