Friday, March 29, 2024

US milk production forecast raised

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Milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 have been raised from a month ago in the latest World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE).
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The milk forecasts have been increased due to gains in output per cow. Milk output for 2015 is now expected to be 208.7 billion pounds, 1.3% more than in 2014. The 2016 milk production forecast has been raised to 213.9 billion pounds, indicating a further 2.5% growth for next year.

The forecast of export volumes has also been increased for both fat basis and skim solids exports. The fat basis export forecast for 2015 is raised on higher cheese exports. Skim solids exports for both 2015 and 2016 are raised on larger exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM).

Imports volumes for 2015 and 2016 have also been revised up from the previous forecast on expectations of strong demand for imported cheese.

Prices for butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey for 2015 are forecast lower on relatively abundant supplies of those products. The cheese price forecast is raised on strong demand. Nonfat dry milk and whey prices are reduced for 2016. The 2016 butter price range is narrowed.

The Class III milk price forecast is raised for 2015 on stronger cheese prices but reduced for 2016 on lower whey prices. Class IV prices for 2015 and 2016 are lowered on weaker product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.15 to $17.55 per cwt for 2015 and $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt for 2016. 

The outlook for 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies is raised slightly this month with increases in corn and oats beginning stocks outweighing a decline for barley.

Projected corn production for 2015/16 is unchanged at 13,630 million bushels, 4% below WASDE-542-2 last year’s record level. Corn beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised with a 25-million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 forecast corn use in ethanol production

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