Friday, March 29, 2024

US expects to produce more milk

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(REPORT RELEASE) The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its milk production forecast for 2016 up from last month’s forecast, the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows. 
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The revised projection is for 211.9b pounds of milk to be produced, up 0.1b pounds from the USDA’s January estimate.  This puts anticipated US milk production for 2016 up 1.6% from 2015 production, which is estimated at 208.5b pounds.

The USDA has adjusted its US cow herd number to reflect the dairy cow inventory reported in its earlier Cattle report. This report put the US milking herd at 9.3m cows. Milk per cow has also been raised for the first quarter.

The all milk price forecast has been revised down, to $15.30-$16/cwt. The January forecast was $15.35-$16.15/cwt. This is lower that the estimated price for 2015, which is $17.08/cwt.

Price forecasts for non-fat dry milk and whey have been lowered, as US prices for these products continue to reflect weakness in international markets.

The butter price forecast has been raised as domestic demand remains strong. The forecast butter price is now $1.990-$2.090/lb ($4387-$4608/t). This continues to be well above prices achieved for butter in any other market.

The cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month, although the range is narrowed.

The Class III price forecast has been lowered on lower whey prices. Class III milk is used primarily for cheese, but also for butter and whey.

The Class IV price is also revised down as a lower non-fat dry milk price more than offsets a higher butter price.

Beginning stocks of fats are raised from last month as cheese stocks at the end of 2015 were high. Beginning stocks are estimated to be 13.3b pounds – the estimate was 12.8b pounds inJanuary. For skim-solids, beginning stocks are lowered slightly, with stocks estimated at 13.8b pounds.

Both fat basis and skim-solids exports for 2016 are reduced from last month reflecting continued pressure on cheese, non-fat dry milk, whey, and lactose exports, due to large global supplies and a relatively strong dollar. The forecast for imports is unchanged.

See the full report here. 

US milk production (2014 vs 2015, January to November)

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