As at January 1 the number of milk cows rose slightly by 8500 to 9.315 million cows.
Replacements for milk cows were up 2% or 114,000 to 4.824m and of them, replacements expected to calve increased in numbers by 2% or 65,000 to 3.117m.
Texas and New Mexico, recently hit by a severe storm that killed livestock, felt the biggest drop in numbers. Texas milk cow numbers were down 10,000 and New Mexico numbers were down 8000.
California came out better than expected considering the on-going drought with a drop of 5000 taking its milk herd to 1.775m.
The largest increases in milk cow numbers were seen in Michigan (9000), Idaho (8000), Wisconsin (5000) and New York (5000).
Milk cow replacement numbers showed larger movements with a 2.4% lift recorded across the US.
AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby says the lift in the number of replacement stock is a reflection of an increase in farmer confidence in the US.
“US dairy farmers are enjoying high returns as the price they are being paid for their milk is about twice as much as NZ farmers are getting. The higher number of replacement stock means it is unlikely we will see a slowdown in milk production from the US within the next 12 months. With more replacement stock on hand farmers have the option of increasing either the quantity of quality of their herds.”
A slowdown in milk production across the main milk-producing nations is a main factor in rebalancing the dairy markets so this is not good news for struggling NZ farmers.
“The potential lift in milk output from the US does not bode well for NZ farmers because, while the world’s milk supply exceeds demand, dairy commodity prices and farmgate milk prices in NZ will remain low,” Kilsby said.
The biggest increase in replacement stock was seen in Kansas up 30,000 head. California, Minnesota and Pennsylvania all saw increases of 20,000 head each. New Mexico, Nebraska, and Oregon all saw increases of 10,000 head.
The largest reductions in milk cow replacements were seen in Missouri (15,000), South Dakota (15,000), and Iowa (10,000).
