The compounded annual growth rate of primary sector exports is conservatively estimated at 1.9% in the post-covid world but could be elevated to 3.4% by committing to the roadmap.
The cumulative total of extra export revenue over the next decade could reach $44b, MPI has predicted.
Growth as usual would suggest a target of $57b in 2030 but something approaching $70b would be possible with sector-wide commitment.
“The primary sector is on a pathway to transformation and now it is providing a head-start to economic recovery after covid-19,” she told industry leaders, officials and MPs.
More than 100 gathered at Mount Albert Grammar School in Auckland where squally showers prevented Ardern and other ministers going outside onto the school farm as planned.
“From the moment I started this job I have never questioned the future of the food and fibre sector,” she said.
“We have the same goals – to clean the waterways, build climate resilience, develop new export markets, eradicate Mycoplasma bovis and deliver the country from covid-19.”
She called the plan realistic and workable.
It contains practical ways to gain more value, create more jobs and bolster our green reputation.
Ardern ticked off $1.5b of committed investment by the Government in freshwater quality, water storage, supporting exporters, reducing agricultural emissions, planting a billion trees, boosting employment and developing new horticultural crops.
The Government is also putting nearly $100 million into the Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures Fund and into forestry for innovative projects.
It is funding retraining of people who lost their jobs, market access work, secure containment for imported plant varieties and the reduction of food waste.
Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said the primary sector has recorded 4.5% growth in 12 months to April 30 despite covid-19.
“We can’t rely on volume growth to generate greater returns.
“We need to create new, billion-dollar, category-leading products while respecting Te Taiao, the natural world.
“There is huge potential in this roadmap but it can be achieved only through a close partnership between industry and Maori.”
O’Connor said covid-19 has caused the world to reprioritise food and shelter and New Zealanders are looking to the primary sector to take the economy forward.
The fight against M bovis demonstrates what can be done with a unified team.
Council chairman Lain Jager said much of the primary sector’s 4% annual growth in the decade before the last election came from the dairy industry and that is not repeatable.
“We have looked at the projections of normal growth and overlaid that with transformational growth, such as the aquaculture industry’s own plans.
“The core proposition from the council is that NZ’s place in the sun delivers fantastic food and fibre, at which we are world leaders.
“The council believes we can enhance and emphasise that excellence and unlock further growth.”
Under the heading of transformational productive opportunities the council lists water storage, aquaculture and horticultural development.
It calls for new product development and revitalisation in strong wool.
Research and development settings must be aligned to the strategic direction of the primary sector.
Maori agribusiness and fisheries should be more productive and innovative.
In addition the council suggests overhauling legislation and regulation in exporting, biosecurity, animal welfare and food safety.
Within the sustainable opportunities were listed wood manufacturing, design using timber, more diverse commercial tree species and adding value to unproductive land.
The He Waka Eke Noa framework for on-farm emissions reduction must deliver ways of recording and reporting for individual landowners.
Inclusivity is defined as increasing the attractiveness of the sector for employment and career pathways, connecting rural people digitally and supporting thriving rural communities.
