Friday, March 29, 2024

Round-up: EU to pick up additional dairy market share to 2025

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The EU will increase its supply to growing internal and world demand for dairy commodities to 2025 and gain additional market share on the world market the European Commission’s DG Agriculture and Rural Development projected at last week’s EU Agricultural Outlook conference in Brussels. About 400 stakeholders were present at the conference, invited by the European Commission representing EU institutions, governments and international organisations, those involved in the food chain, the socio-professional sector, market experts, academics and think tanks, and the broader civil society.
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The outlook for the 10 years to 2025 showed EU milk deliveries increasing by 15 million tonnes or +0.9% a year. 

Ireland, Poland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Romania are expected to have above EU average annual growth in deliveries. Germany, France, UK and Luxembourg are expected to increase annual growth in deliveries at the EU average.

More milk is expected to be channelled into cheese manufacturing particularly to meet growing internal demand and into powders for external trade. 

Global market share for cheese is expected to rise from below 30% in 2015 to above 35% in 2025.  Skimmed milk powder and whey market shares are expected to be slightly less in 2025 than in 2015 and the EU market share in the whole milk powder markets is expected to be slightly more in 2025 compared to 2015. 

Additional milk channelled into butter production is expected to mostly cater for growing internal demand but the increase in exports is expected to increase global market share by nearly 5% to about 20% according to the prospects for EU dairy markets 2015-2025 presentation at the conference. 

The outlook for world trade in dairy products showed steady growth but at a slower rate than the previous decade.  

The largest increase in annual import activity to 2025 would come from Africa (excluding South Africa). China would continue to contribute the most to growth in imports of dairy products, however, much less than the previous decade. 

Growth in dairy product exports to 2025 is also expected to be less than the previous decade. NZ, and to a lesser extent, the US, are expected to slow their growth in dairy exports.

The EU is expected to increase its growth of exports contributing the most to trade expansion to 2025. 

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