Thursday, April 25, 2024

Rise in goods terms of trade

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The merchandise terms of trade rose in the June 2015 quarter, due to export prices rising more than import prices, Statistics New Zealand said today. 
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The latest rise of 1.3% followed a 1.2% rise in the March quarter.

Exported goods prices rose 2.1% with dairy products ‒ up 6.0% ‒ contributing the most to the rise.

Statistics NZ prices manager Chris Pike said although dairy prices were up in the June quarter, helped by a weaker dollar, they were 28% lower than in the March quarter last year.

“Excluding dairy, export prices fell about 0.1% in the June 2015 quarter.”

ASB Bank said in a statement the Q2 results had come as a surprise.

"Q2 dairy prices were up 6.0%, whereas we had factored in a 3% rise. This dairy export price rise will be temporary as dairy auction prices then fell heavily in the subsequent months."

This was due to the a three month lag in trade data behind GlobalDairyTrade auction information.

Statistics NZ said the rise in dairy prices in the June 2015 quarter followed four quarterly decreases. Seasonally adjusted dairy volumes fell, while their value fell 1.8% to $2.8 billion in the June quarter. Prices for dairy product exports can be set some time in advance. The GDT index (traded in US dollars) has fallen since March, with significant falls in July and the first half of August, before regaining some ground in mid-August.

Seasonally adjusted export volumes fell 0.2% in the June 2015 quarter. Dairy, down 4.0%, and meat down 4.2% contributed the most to the fall, while export petroleum products, fruit, and forestry product volumes rose.

Imported goods prices rose 0.7% in the June 2015 quarter, and seasonally adjusted import volumes rose 0.4%. Petroleum products (up 4.1%) had the most significant effect on overall import prices. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.3% and volumes fell 0.4%.

"While this quarter’s result is a welcome surprise, we expect the Terms of Trade to resume falling over the second half of 2015," ASB Bank said.

The price and volume indexes for exports and imports of goods were compiled mainly from information initially collected in NZ Customs Service declarations.

For more information visit www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/imports_and_exports/OverseasTradeIndexesPricesAndVolumes_HOTPJun15qtr.aspx

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