GlobalDairyTrade released its quarterly report providing analysis of key price-related statistics for the Q1 2016. Supply and demand at the auction have both shown a decline in Q1 compared to the previous quarter.
GDT Price Index
At the end of Q1 the GDT Index was 628, the lowest level since August last year. The index dropped 14% since the end of Q4 and was 29% lower than 12 months ago.
The quarterly direction of the index has been bobbing around for the last 12 months. The decline over Q1 2016 was substantially higher than the decline over Q4 2015 which saw a drop of 4%. But in Q3 2015 the index rose 12.9%, Q2 2015 saw the index fall 23% and Q1 2015 saw the index rise 16.2%.
Average product quarterly indexes
Lactose was the only product traded on GDT that saw an increase (16%) in its average quarterly index in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015. All other products saw decreases including whole milk powder, down about 14% and skimmed milk powder down about 8%. Cheddar dropped about 15%, butter dropped 13% and anhydrous milkfat dropped 19%.
Compared to the same quarter a year earlier the pattern was similar in that lactose was the only product to see an increase in average quarterly index up 6.1%.
WMP, the most traded product on GDT was down 29%, SMP down 35%, cheddar down 23%, butter down 23%, and AMF down 17%.
Participating bidders
The number of participating bidders, defined as those placing bids in round 1 of a trading event, were around the same for Q1 and Q4 although has fallen back slightly from a year ago.
Products attracting the highest number of participating bidders over Q1 were WMP (128), SMP (115), AMF (96), butter (54), and cheddar (42).
Supply and demand
Supply and demand were both down in Q1. Volumes of quantities supplied at the events in Q1 was 9% down in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015 and first round demand, as defined by the number of first round bids placed, was down 31% in Q1 2016 over Q4 2015.
