Saturday, April 20, 2024

OMF NZ Futures Market report – July 29, 2014

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NZ dairy futures remained quiet yesterday with no volume trading and a continued lack of interest in the market.  Prices are still fairly wide and we don’t see much in the way of participation outside of the usual players who are always active in this market. The market will likely remain this way until we start seeing some positive numbers come out of GDT.  With only two of the last twelve auctions being positive results, one would expect the trend to change sooner rather than later.
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In domestic news, Fonterra farmers are expecting a decent cut in regards to the payout today.  Bank analysts largely have the payout forecast moving from the current $7 mark to as low as $6, with some saying the risk of lower than $6 also rising.

The cut is substantial.  Looking at just one region, the Waikato.  Based on last year’s production numbers, a $1 move equates to c.$380m hit to the Waikato economy.

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