Friday, March 29, 2024

OMF Dairy Futures report – December 18, 2013

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GDT Result  – overall a good result  AMF was the big mover on the NZX futures related GDT with prices up between 2.8% and 13.8%.  SMP was marginally lower in C2 but rose in C3 to C5 – C6 corrected over 7% but no surprise.  WMP was weaker falling nearly 2% in C2.  Overall, a pretty impressive result given volumes and where prices have settled.  Where to now for WMP? WMP Futures prices have been marked down with December rolling off; the front month of January is midding at $4950.  Some might think the first cracks are appearing in WMP and we have been calling for a correction for a few weeks.  This is now happening but we are not bearish, we would still be a buyer of dips as we are now entering the back end of the New Zealand season, well past the peak with less product coming to market. GDT arbitrage still on In regard to the GDT arbitrage – this is still alive and well.   SMP – We would be buying May futures at $4700 as opposed to buying C6 on GDT at $5320 WMP – We would be buying April futures at $4850 as opposed to buying C5 on GDT at $5115 AMF – We would be buying May futures at $5250 as opposed to buying C6 on GDT at an implied price of over $6300   We wish all our clients a merry Christmas and happy holidays.  Thanks very much for your support this year.  This is our last market report until January 13th 2014.  We will be open throughout the Christmas period except for the statutory holidays.
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