Milk production data for December released by the Dairy Companies Association of NZ (DCANZ) revealed milk intakes were below year ago levels but by a lesser degree than seen in the previous months. The deficit in percentage terms for December was just 1.2% when measured on a milk solids basis. November intakes were 2.1% down year-on-year while October intakes were 2.7% lower.
This brings NZ milk production for the 2015-16 season to date to -2.6%. AgriHQ forecasts a drop in the vicinity of 3% for the full season to 30 May 2016.
December was hot and dry in most parts of NZ. Rainfall was below normal for virtually the entire country. Soil moisture levels were below average for most of NZ, but the situation has since improved.
Wide spread rain in early January has eased fears that milk production will fall away rapidly in the later part of the season. But several regions still remain drier that usual. These include central Waikato and the coastal regions of Taranaki – both important dairying regions. Parts of Southland and Otago are also drier than normal but recent rains have significantly improved conditions in the northern half of the South Island.
The heightened culling activity recorded earlier in the season has slowed in the past couple of months. Farmers are now concentrating on producing as much milk as their feed supplies allow as they attempt to generate as much income as possible. Many farms are now running lower stock numbers than normal for this time of the season but this has only had a minimal impact on milk production as it is the lower quality cows that have been culled.
Culling activity is expected to resume in the March to May period – the final three months of the season is when the majority of culling activity normally takes place. The cull for the season to date is currently running approximately 25% ahead of the same time last season due to the spike in culling activity during the spring.
Source: AgriHQ, NZ Meat Board
Fonterra’s latest Global Dairy Update shows that its December milk collections were down 2.8% on December 2014, with a total 195.6 million kilograms of milksolids (kg MS) collected. This indicates Fonterra collected 84% of the total volume of milk produced in December. Fonterra's cumulative milk intake volumes for the season-to-date stands at 932.3kg MS, down 4.1% from this time last season.
