The national dairy cow herd has been shrinking and adverse weather events limited milk production growth, a supply factor in global markets contributing towards a run of four seasons of plus-$6/kg milksolids payouts.
Long-range weather forecasts contain more regular rain events over summer and autumn, in contrast to last season’s widespread drought.
The peak month of October delivered 0.3% milk production increase compared with October 2019 and the season-to-date figure is 1.8% ahead of the previous season, on a milksolids basis.
Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand reported 267.6 million kilograms milksolids in October and 3.24m tonnes of milk collected.
These figures compared with 266.9m kg in October 2019 and 3.21m tonnes collected.
NZX dairy analyst Amy Castleton says the October result was good news for farmers who had been managing dry conditions in late winter and early spring.
Since October there had been widespread rain in the North Island dairying districts and pasture growth rates had increased, unfortunately with a tendency towards reproductive content and a drop in quality.
Her projection for November was a similarly flat result to October and then from December onwards a lift in milk production compared with the corresponding droughty months last season.
Her seasonal forecast is for 1.2% increase.
Fonterra might have a shot at increasing its milk intake and market share this season despite the loss of some Waikato suppliers to Synlait Pokeno.
Fonterra won’t publish its global dairy update with NZ production figures until later this week.
