The report notes the expectation of low feed prices will provide incentives for herd expansion in the cattle sector in the U.S, with beef cow numbers tipped to rise from 29.7 million a head in 2015 to more than 33 million by the end of the ten year period.
The implications of increased U.S. production is more beef available to trade. “Per capita U.S. beef consumption is predicted to rise moderately over the projected period, as production gains are large enough to support increasing net exports as well as rising domestic demand”, said the report.
While the U.S will increase its grain-fed beef exports into Mexico and Canada, it will remain the world’s largest importer of beef from Australia and New Zealand, for use in processed products.
U.S dairy output is also expected to rise based on subdued feed costs. “Rising milk prices after 2018 and lower feed costs than in recent years will give favourable returns to producers and provide economic incentives for continued expansion”.
The USDA’s outlook for agricultural trade is not as rosy as it has been. “Projected global demand for agricultural products will rise, but at a slower rate than in the past decade. As a result growth in world agricultural trade will continue, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years”.
Increased demand for meat will be observed most significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa the Middle East and Southeast Asia. These four regions will account for almost 40% of the increased global meat imports through to 2025.
However, opportunities for premium quality beef will be limited. “Exports of lower-priced beef from India and Brazil, mostly to low- and middle-income countries, account for almost two-thirds of the projected increase in exports by the major beef exporters”, the report said.
Opportunities for trade growth will be most evident in China, where about 9% of the forecast additional meat consumption will be supplied by imports.
