Saturday, March 30, 2024

Info void creates speculation

Neal Wallace
The absence of substantive economic or social analysis accompanying the Government’s freshwater plans is being filled by speculation and uncertainty.
Reading Time: 3 minutes

As with May’s Zero Carbon Bill, the Action for Healthy Waterways discussion document is light on social or economic costs though officials say they are working on it.

Environment Minister David Parker said a final decisions on the policy will not be made till the analysis is done.

Beef + Lamb and DairyNZ are doing their own economic and social assessments.

In the interim the void is being filled by reports such as Landcare Research predictions a million hectares of pasture will have to be planted in trees to meet the plan’s sediment targets and another by Local Government NZ that massive land use change will be required.

National Party agriculture spokesman Todd Muller says it is fine for the Government to say what it thinks needs to be done but not having economic and social analysis to provide context is a most extraordinary omission.

This lack of analysis replicates the Zero Carbon Bill earlier this year, which similarly allowed other entities to fill the void with their own analysis.

The Landcare report focuses on the impact of sediment on freshwater but concludes the high cost of mitigation and lure of income from carbon sequestration could see 429,000ha of new forests in Otago and 83,000ha in Waikato.

The LGNZ report also suggests the freshwater proposals will lead to significant land use change from livestock to forestry.

It said new national nitrogen and phosphorus limits could cost Waikato dairying $140m a year while a 9% reduction in allowable nitrogen loss in Southland would hit farm profits by $17m a year.

LGNZ modelling of the Waikato catchment based on proposed nitrogen and phosphorus limits will reduce dry stock farming from 43% of land use to 14%, with forestry increasing from 20% to more than 50%. Dairying would fall by 13%. 

Landcare’s model says 14% of the country’s catchments need more forests to meet the sediment targets and it estimates 30% of catchments will struggle to meet the new sediment limits.

Questioned in Parliament on the Landcare report, Environment Minister David Parker says it uses a theoretical model that ignores glacial sediment flour, such as that found in glacier-fed rivers like the Clutha, is exempt from the new sediment limits.

He rejected claims in the Landcare modelling that 375,300ha of the Clutha catchment will be planted in trees to remove that sediment as wrong and said it will never happen.

Landcare estimates a further $1.2 billion is still to be spent on riparian exclusion.

An Economic Institute Research report commissioned by Fish and Game, Forest and Bird and Greenpeace downplays the impact of the freshwater proposals on dairying.

Due to dairying’s relatively small size the impacts of the reforms are unlikely to be major and not felt for many years because of the long lead times, it said.

Its statement the dairy industry accounts for only 3% of GDP prompted DairyNZ to label its findings less an economic report and more a high-level commentary on the sector’s role in the economy.

DairyNZ chief executive Dr Tim Mackle said dairying generates 28% of merchandised exports and 20% of goods and services exports.

The report ignored dairy’s social impact. Mackle said it is the largest industry and income earner in Waikato, West Coast and Southland.

LGNZ is concerned the freshwater package is too nutrient-focused and says modelling done for Waikato Regional Council’s Plan Change 1 (Healthy Rivers) and for Environment Southland’s Land and Water plan show national averaging of phosphorus and nitrogen levels in waterways is something of a blunt instrument.

The report cites statistical evidence that nutrient levels explain only part of the variation in water’s ecologic health.

Asked what a National government would do to improve freshwater quality Muller says regional councils would be allowed to continue implementing the existing two-year-old National Policy Statement.

To accelerate its implementation or address catchments where quality is a concern the Government could work with regional councils to provide any tools or instruments they need. 

NZ First agriculture spokesman Mark Patterson says while supporting the aspiration of improving waterways his party will wait on the results of the consultation on the Government’s proposals.

Patterson acknowledged farming faces significant reforms.

“There is a period of uncertainty as we work through some genuinely significant policy issues, which is clearly putting pressure on some of our farmers.

“We are keen to get some sensible and sustainable policies implemented so farmers can get back to focusing their efforts on doing what they do best.”

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