WeatherWatch head forecaster Philip Duncan says the dry regions in the southern South Island could get some reprieve from rain expected over Anzac weekend.
A wet weather system expected over the weekend is predicted to bring 60mm to the south west of the South Island and up to 30mm to central and eastern parts of Southland and Otago.
While there is potentially some reprieve for the south, Duncan says the front is unlikely to bring rain to North Canterbury, Hawke’s Bay and East Cape.
“North Canterbury, Hawke’s Bay and East Cape stand out as regions having to deal with drier than normal conditions through to the end of autumn,” Duncan said.
Southland Federated Farmers vice-president Bernadette Hunt describes Eastern Southland, Northern Southland, West Otago and South Otago as green, but with very little sub soil moisture.
“It’s green but you wouldn’t realise how dry it is,” Hunt said.
After tipping 160mm of rain out of the gauge on her farm north of Gore in January, just 45mm fell in February and March, and 20mm in the first half of April.
“All of those have been in dribs and drabs of 5mm and 7mm, not enough to get below the surface,” she said.
An abundance of growth early on ensured plenty of supplementary feed was made, but Hunt says some farmers are now feeding that to stock.
Space at meat plants is tight, and crops, while well established, need a drink, and any feed for sale has been quickly purchased.
Hunt says that while rain will be welcome, any benefit heading into winter requires temperatures staying warm.
Feds Otago dairy chair Luke Kane says his Tapanui farm received 8mm in the last week, but other parts of West Otago got up to 40mm.
With the dairy season drawing to a close, farmers are using supplementary feed to boost production, while many have shifted to once-a-day or 16-hour milking earlier than usual.
His farm received 160mm less rain than average in the year to March 31.
Kane says winter crops are varied, with fodder beet yields above average due to the warm, dry weather, but some brassicas crops are struggling due to aphid infestation.
Hawke’s Bay Feds chair Jim Galloway says just 19mm has fallen on his farm so far this month, following five months of below average rainfall.
The driest areas were in the ranges and foothills, and Galloway says the biggest worry for those farmers is that the opportunity for growth ahead of winter is reducing.
Because last year was so dry, farmers are not fully stocked but Galloway says similarly, they are not buying their traditional numbers of store lambs or cattle to take through the winter.
Feds North Canterbury junior vice-chair Caroline Amyes (CRRT) says dry conditions are worsening, with just small falls of rain making the region green but not providing bulk pasture.
The Banks Peninsula remains exceptionally dry, but dry stock farmers throughout the region are quitting stock.
A bounty of feed at the start of summer ensured farmers were able to build up stores of supplements, which many are now having to feed that out.
Up to 70mm of rain, which was not forecast, fell over much of Gisborne and Wairoa this week, surprising the local Feds president Toby Williams.
“Most places got a decent drink. It’s a start,” he said.
Williams says dry aquifers are the biggest concern, requiring replenishment before next summer, so he hopes more rain will come.
