Volumes mostly as forecast
The volumes of anhydrous milkfat (AMF), skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) to be offered at the 15 March event are all as previously forecast. The amount of butter on offer has been raised slightly, with an extra 75t of butter offered across Contracts 3 and 4. A total of 1850t of butter will be available (+4.2%).
Volumes of AMF and butter are up on the volumes offered at the previous event – AMF by 1.6% and butter by 7.2%. The total volume of NZ-sourced SMP offered at this event is the same as the previous event. The volume of WMP is down 15% on the previous event, however this is as forecast.
Forecast volumes for April and May
For the coming events, Fonterra has again raised its AMF forecasts. An extra 225t of AMF will be offered at each April event and an extra 200t than was forecast previously at the May 3 event. There will be a total of 3275t on offer for each April event and 3250t at each May event.
Butter volumes have also been raised from earlier forecasts. There will be 250t more butter than previously forecast at each April event and an extra 260t at the May 3 event. A total of 1975t of butter will be offered at the two April events.
The volume of NZ-sourced SMP has also been raised from earlier forecasts. There will be 490t more SMP offered at the April 5 event, 550t more at the April 19 event and 480t more at the May 3 event. This increases SMP volumes to more than 4500t for each of the April events. More than 5000t will be offered at each of the May events.
WMP volumes to be offered in April have been reduced slightly. There will be 250t less WMP offered at each April event, with the volume coming off Contract 6. The volume of WMP to be offered on May 17 is just 5500t. The total volume of WMP forecast to be offered across the two May GDT events is just 13,000t, less than half the volume offered in May 2015. The volume forecast for May 2016 is also less than that offered in May 2013 – the year NZ experienced wide spread drought.
12 month forecasts
The amount of both AMF and butter offered this financial year is 2-3% higher than the volume offered last financial year. Offer volumes of both products are expected to keep increasing on that offered in the previous month.
WMP volumes continue to be reduced. The low point is reached in May, with 13,000t expected to be offered. There is to be 31,500t of WMP offered in July – given the large reductions made over the last few months for WMP volumes, it would be no surprise if this volume was also reduced considerably in the coming months.
Fonterra’s total 12 month volumes have been increased to 681,159, a further increase of 0.6%.
Click here for a spreadsheet containing historic forecast volumes.
