Tuesday, March 19, 2024

FROM THE RIDGE: Next three years will be very telling

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Not such a great surprise at the outcome of the election, but the magnitude was bigger than anyone expected.
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A decent part of that was that provincial New Zealand switched from voting National to voting Labour. For the perfectly rational reason of not letting the Greens with their uninformed anti-farming rhetoric getting their hands on too much power.

It appears to have worked with Labour receiving an unlikely majority for the first time in MMP history and early signs that the Greens won’t be offered a coalition deal but the choice of some sort a confidence and supply arrangement with minor concessions – or if they don’t like that, feel free to sit on the cross benches, chums.

Whatever the outcome, it’s an exceptionally large dog with a small tail.

Mind you, at the same time as voters deserted National for Labour, a percentage of the left side of Labour migrated across to the Greens to ensure they remained in Parliament and were there, in their eyes, to keep Labour honest.

The staggering statistic was that Labour won the party vote in every South Island electorate. And there were only four North Island electorates where National won that party vote.

It was of note that Jacinda Ardern in her speech on the night spoke directly to the many people who had voted for Labour for their first time and thanked them for their confidence in her party and government. The specials hadn’t even been counted and she and her team were already looking towards a third term, and possibly another after that.

But easier thought than done.

To keep that new provincial support in the bag for as long as they can, Labour will have to continue a cautious approach to radical change as they have been forced by the handbrake of NZ First over the last three years. Although, probably also because Ardern might talk up her progressive transformational approach, but like that other great populist John Key, she is probably more of an incrementionalist at heart.

And if you do manage to get three or four terms, you can afford to take it slowly but surely.

However, on the other hand are long-time Labour supporters who will be saying that the party now has the mandate to pretty well do anything they want and as quickly as possible.

Ardern, like Key, has captured the centre and will be loath to give it up, so I’m guessing it will be incremental change rather than transformational for this term of government at least. Committed Labour voters might be frustrated, but they won’t be going anywhere else.

We mustn’t forget that the other important function of a democracy is a robust opposition.

ACT leader David Seymour has become a good opposition MP, but will have his hands full with nine new MPs to train up and keep in line. But he has shown that he is up for the job, providing some of them don’t let him down with foolishness.

National on the other hand will be internally focused for some time.

The good news is that no matter how badly they have performed in recent months and poorly they campaigned, they still have a hardcore support base of 27%. It could have been worse and has been. Back in 2002, for many less serious reasons than this time, National got just 21% to secure a paltry 27 seats.

Their ranks have been decimated with much of the young talent and diversity gone. Just a third of that caucus are women and only two Maori. The first thing they need to do is use their list to rescue some talent and diversity. The likes of Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith who lost their electorates need to step off the list to let others in.

Then there is the leadership problem. Other than Judith Collins herself, no one expects she will be still leader come the next election. But she will be around well into next year I expect, as another quick leadership change would be destabilising and demoralising.

Someone in that caucus with leadership aspirations leaked Denise Lee’s email critical of Collins with the expressed purpose of making sure National didn’t poll well so that her staying on as leader wasn’t an option.

It was a vile act of party betrayal and the bitterness behind closed doors will not be helpful in rebuilding a good team.

Christopher Luxon is being talked up but like Mueller, his business background may not necessarily work in the political world. And being a conservative evangelical Christian will not help at all in winning back middle NZ.

Although it is probably the National Party leader after the one they next choose, that will help regain government for National.

After Helen Clark stepped down after her electoral loss, Labour had five leaders before selecting Ardern.

So, it is in the interests of our treasured democracy that National sorts its house out, becomes a decent opposition and rebuilds its talent base so that when it becomes government again as it will, it does it well.

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