In its recommendations to the Government, the commission has maintained NZ should continue with the original recommendation to plant 300,000ha of native trees between now and 2035, along with 380,000ha of new exotics.
However, the commission emphasises a reliance upon exotic forests as carbon sinks beyond this level could divert action away from reducing gross emissions in other sectors.
The report found if carbon prices move over $50 a tonne it would encourage more exotic forestry to be planted, possibly sequestering 8.5 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050, more than required, and overplanting when other options would exist to reduce gross emissions.
The commission has hinted at reducing demand for forestry units, or requiring an additional fee when surrendering forestry units.
It also reiterates that new natives could provide an enduring carbon sink to help offset residual long-lived emissions from hard to abate sectors over the longer-term.
The commission acknowledged the high number of submissions it received supporting native forest establishment, while also acknowledging some submissions were concerned exotic afforestation was occurring at a faster rate than many were aware of.
But Forest Owners Association president Phil Taylor says NZ’s planted forest area has already fallen by 40,000ha in the past two years, meaning now was not the time to suggest putting the brakes on future plantings.
“After more than a decade, the ETS has only just begun to work the way it is meant to. That is to incentivise emissions’ reduction. It is a strange time to pull it back,” Taylor said.
He says failing to achieve the net emission reductions expected using trees in the coming 30 years will only push tougher cuts onto industry, transport and agriculture.
NZ Farm Forestry president Graham West says owners of farmland who are considering planting exotic woodlots may be given pause for thought by the commission’s caution on exotics.
“What we are saying is ‘hold on, please do not put in any more regulations’. The uncertainty around ETS regulations is already making a lot of people stand back from it, just as it is getting going,” West said.
He says banks are hesitant to lend on farm forestry projects, due to uncertainty over carbon cashflow, in turn linked to government policy.
“No one has confidence, with the exception of speculators, they are ploughing ahead and planting wall to wall,” he said.
“If the Government seeks a mosaic of planting types, they need to incentivise Mum and Dad farmers to plant 20-50ha themselves.”
He is doubtful that at this point planting rates for exotic or natives are likely to rise at all, except by speculators.
He also challenged the cost effectiveness of native sequestration that the commission’s own figures highlight.
“They quote costs of up to $50,000 a hectare to establish natives. On a cost per tonne of carbon sequestered natives are high, at about $100 a tonne, compared to only $19-$20/tonne for exotics,” he said.
The commission does acknowledge the valuable role exotics play in early-stage sequestration of carbon, and how older exotic forests could aid a transition to native forests over time.
West says he was heartened to see the commission recognises a need for greater support to help landowners get forests established.
“The Government has been asked to encourage additional carbon storage in smaller blocks of trees on farms. We hope to see that implemented with some sort of grants scheme,” he said.
Taylor also welcomed the commission’s wish for better pest control and while aimed mainly at native forest planting, it would still hold benefits for exotic forest owners.
He says he was also pleased to see the Government has already appeared to have abandoned its ideas of trying to restrict planting forests on better classes of land, where a quarter of the current national estate is already growing.
“It is also important to realise the forest contribution to fighting climate change is not confined to trees themselves, but the downstream use of timber and wood products,” Taylor said.
“The commission’s reference to forests’ role in a thriving low-emissions bio-economy is hugely important for environmental and economic reasons.”
He says this includes the Government’s Wood First construction policy, employing NZ timber where possible.
The commission has recommended that by the end of next year the government should have developed incentives for native forest plantings and proposals for managing the amount of exotic forest plantings inspired by ETS.
