In the first eight weeks of the 2015/16 season to November 28, some 645,000 sheep have been killed for mutton in local processing facilities, 68% ahead of the same time a year earlier, according to provisional export livestock processing data collected by the New Zealand Meat Board.
The lamb kill totals 2.8 million, 18% ahead of the same period a year earlier, while the hogget kill is 3.2% ahead at 13,500, according to the data. Beef slaughter is 17% ahead of last season at 318,000.
Dry weather resulting from an El Nino pattern were impacting the farming regions of North Canterbury, Marlborough, Taranaki and Waikato, reducing grass growth and prompting farmers to sell more stock earlier than normal, analysts say.
“Farmers across the country have been well aware of the El Nino conditions that have been well signalled from early on in 2015 so I think they didn’t carry very much stock and indeed might have made decisions early around what to carry through summer, so that sees more killing,” Bank of New Zealand senior economist Doug Steel said.
“If it is weather driven, and it seems to be, it has more than one season’s impact.”
Exports will receive a boost in the near term, but probably at lower prices, Steel said.
Meat and edible offal is New Zealand’s second-largest export commodity, after dairy products. Meat exports jumped 25% to $1.32 billion in the three months to November 30, compared with the year earlier period, according to the latest Statistics NZ data.
Meat processors are likely to have a lull later in the season, reflecting the earlier culling of stock, Steel said.
The country’s largest meat processors and exporters are farmer-owned cooperatives Silver Fern Farms and Alliance Group, as well as the Talley’s Group-owned Affco and Japanese joint venture Anzco Foods.
“Looking into next season, if it does start cutting into breeding stock then it could have implications for next spring’s lambing,” Steel said. “That will really depend a lot more on what farmers do around the breeding stock situation and more importantly, the weather through the year.
“If what ewes we do have are kept in reasonable nick then they may not be affected next year. It’s still pretty early days,” he said.
