FULL SHOW | February 02, 2021 from GlobalHQ on Vimeo.
The commission has just released its draft package of advice to the Government on how to meet its commitment of reaching net zero emissions of long-lived gases by 2050, and to reduce biogenic methane emissions by between 24-47% by 2050.
It says under current greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy settings, the output of milk solids is expected to increase slightly by 2035, while meat output will reduce slightly.
However, beyond that year the effects of meeting emissions targets on production will depend on the availability of new technologies, such as a methane inhibitor or vaccine, that are not yet available.
The advice notes that agriculture has already made improvements in reducing emissions during the last few decades – but more has to happen.
“There are changes that farmers can make now to reduce emissions on their farms, if given sufficient support,” the commission said.
“These can improve animal performance while reducing stock numbers, reducing the number of breeding animals required, and moving to lower input farm systems.”
The commission says the Biological Emissions Reference Group (which includes Beef + Lamb NZ, DairyNZ, Deer Industry NZ, Horticulture NZ, Federated Farmers, Fonterra, the Fertiliser Association of NZ and the Ministry for Primary Industries) found that, if successfully implemented, the changes won’t significantly reduce production and profitability can be maintained, or even improved.
“With these changes, the 2030 biogenic methane target could be met without relying on new technologies. If farmers can continue to achieve productivity improvements in line with historic trends, these outcomes could be achieved while maintaining total production at a similar level to today,” it said.
However, the draft advice would see dairy, and sheep and beef animal numbers fall by around 15% from 2018 levels by 2030, compared with an 8-10% reduction projected under current policies.
That includes transforming a small amount of dairy land into horticulture, at a rate of 2000 hectares per year from 2025.
Beyond that, the commission says selective breeding for lower emissions sheep is a proven option, which is in the early stages of commercial deployment.
If that technology can be progressively adopted, the commission says biogenic methane emissions from sheep and beef farming could be cut by 1.5% by 2030 and 3% by 2035.
It notes that breeding for low emissions cattle is a future possibility, but the research is in an earlier stage, so it’s not expecting any contribution from it by 2035.
Methane inhibitors and vaccines are also being researched but they are not yet commercially available and when they will be is uncertain, along with their cost and effectiveness, so they have not been included in the commission’s calculations.
It’s estimated 20,000 to 30,000 farm businesses will need to reduce their biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions by making on-farm practice changes, which many are already doing.
Making those changes will increasingly require skilled farm management and high-quality data.
To ensure more widespread access to that data, information and tools, the commission has recommended the Government ensure the Rural Broadband Initiative is resourced and prioritised to achieve its 2023 target. That will support decision-making and the ability to practice precision agriculture.
The commission says NZ cannot continue to rely on more exotic forests to meet emissions reduction targets.
It says forests will play an important role in meeting the country’s emission’s budgets and targets, but continued reliance on plantation forestry as a carbon sink could divert action away from reducing emissions in other sectors, and make maintaining net zero emissions after 2050 challenging.
The commission says the current Emissions Trading Scheme ( ETS) settings may incentivise more large-scale pine plantations than is desired.
It’s recommending policy be developed to encourage a significant increase in new native forests established on less productive land.
Estimates from recent studies suggest there is 1.15 million to 1.4m hectares of marginal land that could be planted in forestry.
Much of that land is steep and prone to erosion, so would be more suitable for permanent forests, particularly native forests.
More information on the commission’s draft advice, including how to make a submission on it, can be found at climatecommission.govt.nz
Submissions close on March 14.
