In the month leading up to January 6, the average PGI is lower than the equivalent one month period for the all but one of the past 15 years, for North and South Canterbury. While for Otago the average is lower than all but 2012 and 2004 since 1996.
In the North Island's key dairying regions Waikato, Taranaki and Northland, which combined contribute 29.5% of NZ’s milk collections, the rolling month average is much closer to normal, despite dipping lately.
NIWA guidance suggests that temperatures are most likely to be normal or above in most of the country during the January to March period. Rainfall is predicted to be near or above normal for the North Island, normal for the north of the South Island and equally likely to be either normal or below normal for the rest of the South Island.
This means that the current situation and outlook for milk production is very different to that seen during the 2013 drought. The drought in 2013 was mostly based in the North Island, and was especially harsh in Waikato, where nearly a quarter of NZ’s milk is produced.
One of the key features of farming in the Otago and Canterbury regions is irrigation. There are far greater irrigation rates in these regions than the rest of NZ. As at 2010, the area of land under consented irrigation in these two areas was 78.8% of the total area under consented irrigation in New Zealand. Although restrictions to irrigation use in these areas are imminent due to the dry weather, as of yet, a significant amount of the potential harm caused to pastures from the lack of moisture will have been offset.
Another key factor in mitigating the impact of potential drought this season is the amount of supplementary feed that is available. Due to good conditions in September and October anecdotal reports have suggested that there was a relatively high volume of grass cut for silage and hay produced.
There has also been a record volume of palm kernel imported, which has been in very low demand during late 2014. This has left many importers with almost no room in storage. As palm kernel is the most commonly used supplementary feed in NZ, in previous dry periods the demand has caused stores to empty, but the high volumes in storage at the moment will mean farmers will have much greater access to the feed in 2015.
