Hawke’s Bay Rural Advisory Group co-chair Lochie MacGillivray says farmers are being advised that conditions are worsening especially in the south, central and coastal parts of the province.
But the significant difference is that farmers have plenty of supplementary feed, stock numbers are still low, a consequence of last year’s drought, however, what pasture they do have is poor.
MacGillivray says rainfall in January and February was 15% of normal and Hawke’s Bay Regional Council scientists have concluded there is a 2% chance soil moisture levels will reach field capacity by the start of May.
“We don’t need to go into winter at field capacity, but we want to be well above wilting point,” MacGillivray said.
AgriHQ senior analyst and Hawke’s Bay farmer Mel Croad says last spring farmers sowed an abundance of feed crops, which took pressure off the need to quit stock as the dry conditions met with the seasonal low point in farm gate prices.
Dams are low and creeks have dried.
“It’s not as bad as this time last year, but guys are starting to feed out,” Croad said.
“We learnt a lot last year about getting through it and making early calls.
“If it stays dry into late-autumn it will be harder to get out of it, because of the soil deficit we had heading into this summer.”
RuralWeather head analyst Philip Duncan says with La Nina waning, NZ weather patterns are returning to normal, which means a typically dry March.
For the next two weeks much of the country, including the east coasts of both islands, can expect up to 15mm.
The exception is the South Island’s West Coast, which will receive up to 200mm of rain in the next two weeks.
