DairyNZ says the report is a welcome acknowledgement of a split gas approach and that methane does not need to reduce to net zero.
Chief executive Tim Mackle says the commission’s science-based approach is ambitious and challenging for all of New Zealand and farming is no exception.
“The short-term 2030 and 2035 methane targets are ambitious, making the next 10-15 years the most important for adapting farm systems and investment in research and development solutions for agriculture,” Mackle said.
He says DairyNZ will closely examine the commission’s proposals and underlying assumptions during the next few weeks, in particular the biogenic methane targets and advice on reducing stock numbers.
“We will be looking at what this advice could mean for dairy farmers and how the Government will partner to support our sector through this transition,” he said.
He is encouraged to see the recommendations to the Government to focus on R&D and rural broadband as solutions to support agriculture to reduce emissions.
“Climate policy is incredibly complex. Yes, science sits at its core – but there are also economic, social and political implications to be considered,” he said.
“NZ dairy farmers are already the world’s most emissions efficient, so it’s a balance between farming sustainably, maintaining international competitiveness and running a viable business.
Beef + Lamb NZ has welcomed the commission’s acknowledgement that large-scale forestry planting is not the solution to NZ reducing its emissions.
Chief executive Sam McIvor says the sheep and beef sector also acknowledges the increased focus on planting native forest and the multiple environmental benefits this delivers, such as long-term stable sequestration and enhanced biodiversity.
“However, farmers would have liked to have seen greater recognition of the sequestration already happening on sheep and beef farms as a result of their own conservation efforts over the past few decades,” McIvor said.
“The commission’s projected increase in new tree plantings, either exotic or native, will also likely still have significant implications for our farmers and our rural communities. Fossil fuel emitters should not automatically just be able to dump their pollution on sheep and beef land.”
McIvor says the report contains a number of areas of concern that need to be studied in more detail.
These include the commission’s advice of a 15% reduction in sheep, cattle and dairy livestock numbers within the next nine years, analysis of the social and economic impacts of land-use change on communities, the science behind the methane targets including for 2100, and discussion around GWP*.
University of Waikato Environmental Research Institute Professor Troy Baisden says the report contains relatively little detail on agriculture and land-use, except for reductions achieved by forests.
“This is neither surprising nor a weakness. It simply reflects both the difficulty and uncertainty in achieving emissions reductions in agriculture, and projecting these forward,” Baisden said.
He says the commission briefly notes significant yet uncertain areas of potential, such as an ongoing conversion from grazed pastures toward high-value horticulture.
“However, a significant gap is understanding the potential for the growth of a bioenergy sector, and whether this might start to resemble agriculture more than forestry,” he said.
University of Canterbury professor of political science and international relations Bronwyn Hayward says there is still tension around agricultural targets.
“Biogenic methane is currently a separate (spilt) target – this is an unusual move internationally and one many of our major trading partners like the UK are unhappy about,” Hayward says.
“We had first pledged to only cut methane by 10% by 2030 and the new report raises that ambition to 13% reductions by 2035 on the grounds it’s realistic.
“Some New Zealanders forced to trade in their old cars will be asking: ‘Is it fair? Is this really an example of everyone going as hard and as fast as we can?’”
Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard says the report challenges all New Zealanders to think about every part of their lives and farmers are no different, except that they’ve been talking about science-based analysis, data gathering and solutions for much longer.
“The report talks about pushing harder to get solutions from science and technology, and farmers are totally about that too,” Hoggard said.
“That’s why Federated Farmers continues to support programmes like He Waka Eke Noa and the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium.”
“Now we are going to need every Kiwi to join a conversation about their need to consider, and eventually accept, the use of technologies like methane vaccines, feed inhibitors and other solutions like gene-edited grasses.
“This is how we are going to meet our toughest targets. Kiwis will need to get on board with this,” he said.
