McGregor estimates the Shanghai restaurant scene, an indicator of people’s willingness to get out and about, is about 30% of its way back to recovery.
However, with summer approaching and some easing of movement restrictions there is a sense of optimism in the air that things can only get better.
“Certainly, compared to what we have come through, people are feeling a lot more optimistic about where we are now,” he said.
He and the rest of the city were never legally confined to their homes during Shanghai’s lockdown. But it was the only realistic option in a city where the only places remaining open were supermarkets, produce outlets and hospitals.
He believes the Chinese government has earned kudos for acting quickly.
“And I think a lot of other countries are now looking at what they did and that includes the regional lockdowns.”
Entry to Shanghai now requires a 14-day quarantine in a government-selected hotel while cell phones are scanned when entering facilities to determine where their owners have been over past days.
Locals are still required to use an app that assesses their health status with a red, orange, green system, determining whether they can access some locations.
“And you will still get your temperature scanned when you enter your office building.”
Like New Zealand, the international borders are shut to all non-Chinese visitors and air traffic remains only 1.2% of the volume before covid-19.
And as benign as the government controls might appear, a heavy hand will still come down hard on non-conformers. McGregor recounted an Australian-Chinese woman who returned to China and went unmasked for a run, both illegal.
“She was duly filmed by security staff, the video went viral and she ended up losing her job with a multi-national and was sent back to Australia.”
Coming out of the covid-19 woods is not a smooth passage even with China’s ability to control most things in its citizens’ lives.
Attractions like Shanghai’s Pearl Tower, that opened only 10 days earlier, have shut again with no notice of when they can re-open.
Schools remain shut in Shanghai, with little indication when they will re-open.
McGregor said there is much for New Zealanders to learn from the Chinese experience and despite the difference in size both countries face similar challenges.
For his business, marketing Mountain River venison to Shanghai restaurants, there is a long way to get back to where he was.
“In fact I do feel a bit like I am starting my business again, only this time I know what I am doing!”
He sees demand shifts flowing through to NZ exporters as consumer behaviour and eating patterns are reassessed.
“Often it is hotels that account for a lot of that chilled meat trade but I would shudder to think what the occupancy rate is like for hotels right now.”
Eating out is still tightly controlled, with restaurants sometimes forced to remove half their chairs to limit numbers.
He questions whether the traditional premium attached to chilled product can be sustained and perhaps frozen product with its longer shelf life and ability to weather longer supply chain delays might become more popular.
Air freight capacity for higher-value items like chilled meat, fresh seafood and fresh milk is likely to be challenged for many months unless flight volumes pick up and the premium on it is likely to stay high, challenging the affordability of such products.
“I know Air NZ and NZ Trade and Enterprise have been doing a lot of work in this area to keep air freight going and that will be important for a number of products.”
Timing of the western covid-19 outbreak has also meant a reversal of fortunes that will still affect Chinese consumers’ ability to pay top dollar for products.
“In January-February the rest of the world was worried about China’s ability to supply products. Now China is recovering, the rest of the world is buying less and this will roll into Chinese companies’ income and therefore workers’ incomes and ability to buy.”
But he also sees some opportunity arising over the Chinese summer.
“Normally, people leave the cities, head away for a holiday overseas. This year they will be staying home more. That is likely to result in greater demand for quality imported products from NZ.”
Like many Kiwis McGregor hopes NZ’s diplomatic efforts and solid trade relationship with China will hold this country in good stead as it grapples with a new world order in trade.
To some extent it has already been validated by Chinese President Xi Jinping encouraging dairy product consumption in covid’s wake.
Meantime, McGregor encourages his fellow kiwis to stay positive in a locked down country with an environment far less bleak than a Shanghai winter spent in an apartment with few options outside.
“Doing business in China we are used to uncertainty and challenges. This is just bigger than normal.”
