The commission’s report to the Government on how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, suggests reducing stock numbers by 15% and steeper biogenic methane reduction targets of 6.5% below 2018 levels by 2025, 11.4% by 2030 and 15.9% by 2035.
Both ideas concern Beef + Lamb NZ (B+LNZ) and DairyNZ, but commission chair Rod Carr says lower stock numbers would be the result of natural land-use change to horticulture and forestry, and farm management measures.
He says farmers can also achieve these targets by making greater use of low-emitting livestock genetics and feed, and adopt known farm management systems.
The 2019 Zero Carbon Act set methane reduction targets at 10% below 2017 levels by 2030 and 24-47% reduction by 2050, but the commission warns that on the current trajectory, NZ will at best scrape in at the lower end of 2050 target.
“It is our assessment that current policy settings do not put Aotearoa on track to meet these targets,” Carr said.
“To do so, Aotearoa must accelerate action on climate change.”
B+LNZ environment policy manager Dylan Muggeridge says the organisation is studying the commission’s draft advice on methane to assess if reductions are achievable.
DairyNZ chief executive Tim Mackle describes the commission’s methane targets as ambitious and means the next 15 years are important for adapting farm systems and investing in research.
He is encouraged that the commission recommends a greater government focus on research and broadband extension to support agriculture to reduce its emissions.
“Climate policy is incredibly complex. Yes, science sits at its core – but there are also economic, social and political implications to be considered,” Mackle said.
The commission advises that in 2018, gross NZ GHG emissions averaged about 45.5 Mt CO2e of long-lived gases a year and 1.34Mt of biogenic methane.
The commission wants methane emissions to average to 1.11Mt a year by 2035, saying the target will set NZ up to meet its 2050 commitments and beyond.
In a paper responding to the commission’s report, B+LNZ says what is being asked of the red meat sector is disproportionate to other sectors where emissions have increased.
“We are also concerned that while the commission has acknowledged the efficiency gains made by our sector over the past three decades, it has failed to duly recognise the significant reductions in absolute greenhouse gas emissions made, a 30% reduction in absolute emissions since 1990,” the report said.
It says the “significant amount” of sequestration from vegetation on sheep and beef farmland is also not being recognised.
The commission is confident its emission budgets are achievable without reducing red meat or dairy production.
It assumes current efficiency gains in red meat production of about 1% a year will continue for the next 15 years, and contributions from improved farm management practices, land-use change and GHG emission gains from the impact of freshwater policy.
The commission warns that using exotic forestry to offset emissions is not a long-term option.
Despite that, it forecasts new planting of 25,000ha of exotic forestry a year until 2035 after which rates will decline, but annual planting of 25,000ha a year of native forestry will continue.
Welcoming the commission’s view that relying on exotic forestry to sequester GHG is not viable, B+LNZ is concerned at the impact on land-use, with forecasts that by 2050 the area of sheep and beef farming will fall to 7.15m ha, 41% less than 1990.
“B+LNZ would like to see concrete policy guidance or proposals for how limits can be placed on forestry offsets,” the report said.
B+LNZ welcomes the commission taking a holistic approach to environmental management.
“It is refreshing to finally see advice that clearly states that environmental policy in New Zealand should be more joined up across environmental domains, in particular across climate change, freshwater, biodiversity and soils,” it said in its report.
