Thursday, March 28, 2024

CCC submissions flood in

Neal Wallace
Methane reduction targets remain a contentious issue for the livestock sector, which is critical of Climate Change Commission recommendations for an even steeper reduction pathway than proposed in the Zero Carbon Act.
Sam McIvor says some of the options for changes to the ETS settings are going to be more effective than others.
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Beef + Lamb NZ, DairyNZ and Federated Farmers are labelling the proposed new targets as unrealistic and not backed by robust science, economic or farm system analysis.

B+LNZ chief executive Sam McIvor says the revised target is a 13.2% reduction in biogenic methane emissions below 2017 levels by 2030.

“This represents a 32% increase in the level of ambition compared to the 2030 biogenic methane target contained in the Zero Carbon Act, which is to reduce methane emissions to 10% below 2017 levels by 2030,” McIvor said.

He says the commission has based its target on reductions that were previously achieved.

“While it is true the sector has achieved a lot, there are limits to what the sector can continue to achieve,” he said.

DairyNZ disagrees with the commission’s underlying assumptions of future productivity improvements and the scalability of mitigation.

“The commission’s pathway assumes changes in farming practices and current technologies beyond the limit of what we, as sector experts, are confident can be achieved,” DairyNZ submitted.

This included an assumption, rejected by DNZ, that the same volume of milk can be produced from fewer cows on less area.

Both DNZ and B+LNZ were also critical of a lack of analysis on the impact of the commission’s recommendations on rural communities.

DNZ says its analysis indicates 34% of farms will be worse off financially, milk production will fall between 7% and 13%, and GDP will take a hit of between 0.98% and 1.4%, equal to between an annual loss of $1665 and $2393 per household.

Both groups welcomed a splitting in the treatment of long and short-lived gases, the commission’s recognition of the importance of agriculture, the role of He Waka Eke Noa, the Primary Sector Climate Action Partnership, and the need for future investment in research.

McIvor says it supports decarbonising the economy through reducing carbon dioxide emissions and not relying on exotic forestry offsetting, but he says the commission’s recommendations will still “lead to swathes of New Zealand sheep and beef farmland being converted to pine trees”.

“This is not supported by New Zealanders, and it will have significant negative impacts for sheep and beef farming, and for rural communities,” he said.

Federated Farmers also raised concerns about the impact on communities of blanket afforestation, which were driven by the value of carbon units.

All three farming groups were supportive of the report’s acknowledgment that rural connectivity needed to be improved.

The federation fears some of the commission’s productivity assumptions are based on modelling that may not reflect reality.

“This concern is particularly pressing when modelling is used that does not acknowledge the differing nature of farming systems used throughout New Zealand, and when all information informing this modelling is not publicly available,” Farmers Federation said.

It assumes productivity improvements can continue at a linear rate, but ignores that recent gains followed the removal of market distorting policies in the mid-1980s and that as farmers approach fixed biological limits, a “diminishing productivity return on investment will result”.

Dryland Carbon, a carbon and forestry business owned by Air NZ, Contact Energy, Genesis Energy and Z Energy, supports “the explicit acknowledgement of the importance of increasing exotic forestry to rapidly absorb carbon over the next 30 years”.

It sees permanent native forests as more suitable long-term carbon sinks.

Ravensdown Fertiliser Co-operative submits that existing initiatives can remove two million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, with minimal impact on production.

It identifies inhibitors to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide and loss from granulated nitrogen fertiliser and livestock urine, precision placement technology and the emerging technology of aerial assessment of vegetation through remote sensing.

More research was needed but it says NZ could be an international leader in carbon efficient and sustainable food production at scale.

IrrigationNZ chief executive Vanessa Winning says emission reduction targets will not be met without investing in water storage, capture and precision use.

“Access to reliable water is essential for farmers and growers to diversify their land away from ruminant agriculture to a more mixed-production approach,” Winning said.

More than 10,000 submissions have been received on the commission’s draft report to the Government.

Its final report, setting out steps NZ must take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, will be completed and delivered to the Government by May 31.

The Government must respond by the end of the year on what advice it will act on.

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