The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 2.7% to about $60.3 billion in 2016-17 (A$58.9b in 2015-16 dollars), following a forecast increase of 9.3% to $58.7 billion in 2015-16.
However, volume of total farm production is forecast to rise by 1.0% in 2016–17, following a forecast decline of 1.8% in 2015–16.
The forecast decline in 2015–16 reflects an expected fall in the volume of livestock production from a record high in 2014–15 (index 2014-15 117.9, index 2015-16f 111.8, index 2016-17f 109.0) offsetting a forecast rise in the volume of crop production.
The volume of livestock production and crop production are then projected to increase out to 2020-21.
The volume of forestry production is expected to increase out to 2019-20 and then decrease in the 2020-21 season.
Total gross value of farm production is expected to be A$66.1b in 2020-21 but in real terms (in 2015-16 dollars) this is projected at A$58.5b. In real terms gross value of crop production is projected to be $28.0b and the gross value of livestock production is projected to reach $30.4b.
Total export earnings from agricultural commodities are forecast to be around $45.0 billion in 2016-17, slightly lower than the forecast $45.2 billion in 2015-16.
Export earnings from Australia's largest export commodity beef and veal is expected to be down 4% in value to A$8.78b and 9% in volume for the 2016-17 season.
The number two largest export earner, wheat is expected to be down 1% in value to A$5.57b but up in volume by 2%.
The additional falls in earnings for export of lamb (-3%) and mutton (-11%) offset the rise in other commodities for the 2016-17 season.
A rise in export earnings for the 2016-17 season is expected to be seen in wool (the third largest export earner up 7%), dairy products (+4%), sugar (+7%), live feeder/slaughter cattle (+9%), cotton (+22%) and canola (+13%).
By 2020-21 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $45.3 billion (in real terms), 11% higher than the average of $40.7 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms.
