The national herd is estimated to fall to 26.2 million head by June 30, 2016, before declining slightly again in 2017, to 25.9m head. If this occurs, it will represent a 3.4m head, or 12%, fall since 2013 and become the lowest national herd for 24 years (1993).
Working to partly offset the projected 16% year-on-year decline in adult cattle slaughter for 2016, at 7.6m head, will be the expectation that average carcase weights will increase considerably. This assumption is based on much lower stocking rates, a greater proportion of lighter northern cattle exported live, a higher proportion of cattle on feed and fewer female cattle processed.
Beef and veal exports are expected to fall as a result of lower production, not due to waning demand. The prediction of the A$ to average between 66-69US¢ is a significant positive, but needs to be balanced against the heightened competition from Brazil in many markets, the expectation of high US poultry and pork production, higher year-on-year US beef production and significantly weaker US beef markets compared to 12 months ago.
