A 15% reduction in stock numbers included in a report to the Government on how to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result from a suite of measures the commission is suggesting the Government adopt.
Carr says those methane-reducing measures include better feeding, strategic breeding and land-use change to horticulture, exotic and native forestry.
But that requires government investment into research and support to roll-out existing low emissions technology and knowledge, such as breeding low-emitting animals.
Carr says on the current trajectory, emission levels will fall short of the targets set out in the Zero Carbon Act passed in 2019.
The commission calculates that by 2030, methane emissions will be 7% below 2018 levels, short of the 10% goal set by the Act, but by 2050 reductions may just scrape into the lower percentile of the 24% to 47% reduction set out by the Act.
By adopting its findings, the commission estimates methane emissions could be 6.5% below 2018 levels by 2025, 11.4% by 2030 and 15.9% by 2035.
That could be achieved without a methane vaccine, new seed varieties or use of genetically modified products to reduce ruminant GHG.
Carr says the commission believes exports of primary production will continue to underpin the NZ economy, but farming will continue to evolve and change as it has for the past century.
“Farmers have in the past been innovative, flexible and have adapted, and there is no reason that will not continue to happen in the future,” Carr said.
Along with breeding and feeding, Carr sees a role for precision agriculture and extending the reach of broadband, saying better connectivity is crucial.
Beef + Lamb NZ estimates the efficiency of red meat production as a percentage of emissions has been improving about 1% a year and says total sector emissions have fallen 30% since 1990.
While reluctant to say unequivocally that current production levels will be maintained from having fewer animals, Carr says evidence suggests that will happen due to superior genetics.
“Our evidence to date is that it seems likely that it will,” he said.
He sees real merit in He Waka Eke Noa, the 13-member primary sector body aiming to come up with a plan to calculate then mitigate GHG emissions on farms and develop resilient farm systems.
“We’re backing them to succeed,” he said.
“I see a real partnership that the sector has with the Government that will have a real crack at reining in emissions by encouraging people to do the right thing rather than the impost of the taxation system.”
The commission will next year advise the Government on the progress of the sector and whether its efforts to reduce GHG emission will need to be replaced by a legislative pricing process.
Carr says any land-use changes will be decided by individual farmers and will ultimately determine any shift in production, but the commission forecasts switching from livestock to horticulture or to exotic or indigenous forestry.
The commission predicts 380,000ha of new exotic forestry to be planted by 2035 and 300,000ha into native.
Carr says relying on pinus radiata to sequester carbon or planting carbon farming forests is not a long-term solution.
Exotic trees only have a 30-year life cycle before the carbon is released, while carbon farming heightens the risk of fire and disease.
“It buys us time while we decarbonise energy production and transportation,” he said.
Despite those reservations, the commission is forecasting planting of exotic plantations 40% less than predictions from other government departments.
The growth of native plantings includes areas of regeneration.
Carr accepts concerns from rural communities about the loss of infrastructure and population from forecasts of 380,000ha of new exotic forestry planting by 2035.
While most of that planting will be on unproductive land, Carr says rural communities have always evolved and changed.
Extending broadband, the expansion of wind, solar and biofuels energy production will assist rural communities.
“We often hear about the jobs that are going and not those jobs that are coming,” he said.
Improved broadband will also enable those living in rural communities to feel connected.
Carr’s message to farmers is that they are economically vital to NZ and will remain so in the future, and that the commission is stressing that all sectors need to make changes to reduce GHG emissions.
“We are all in this together and we all need to get on and do this,” he said.
“Aucklanders need to start using public transport and farmers use technology and management to lower emissions.”
The commission is suggesting the importing of fossil fuel-powered vehicles be banned from 2035, but Carr says farmers will still be able to use their trucks and tractors beyond that date.
The deadline for submissions on the commission’s draft advice document ends on March 28, after which the submissions will be considered a final document presented to Climate Change Minister James Shaw on May 31.
Signatories to the Paris Accord are meeting in Glasgow in November, and Carr says the NZ Government representatives may want to have an emission’s reduction plan to present to the meeting.
