The wounds from this period are clearly still healing as the industry has opted to take a conservative approach this summer, creating some interesting trends for store markets.
In the South Island “take the money and run” has been the go-to approach for lambs. Growth rates have not been particularly strong, but many have chosen to kill more lambs earlier in the season. The sacrifice of a lower carcase weight was deemed acceptable to wear when the threat of big waits at processors remained front of mind. The spinoff is that it has created a midsummer shortage of store lambs. Add in a dash of unseasonal feed confidence, and competition last week saw top end prices push to $3.30/kg in the South Island, which was unachievable in the North Island.
Reverting to traditional buying/selling periods has created a lull in the store cattle market, as lambs remain the focus of the summer months. AgriHQ has collected data at six key North Island yards for at least a decade, and combined January throughput was the lowest on record this year, excluding calves. For reference, tallies came to 6300 head this year compared to 8000 last year and 8700 for the five-year average. The story has been much the same in Canterbury too.
Essentially, sellers either cashed in on the spring market when prices were solid off the back of a November grass market or have chosen to hold out until autumn when buyers usually re-enter the market. This has been consistently reported and applies to both lambs and cattle.
Like most things, autumn trading will be partly dictated by weather and how comfortable farmers feel with feed levels. Reportedly, while some North Island pastures are turning decidedly crispy now, it is nothing out of the ordinary for regions such as Hawke’s Bay, Taupo, Gisborne and Wairarapa who expect and prepare for dry conditions now. It’s a similar story for the South Island, where normal summer pasture conditions are in play, leaving spots of Canterbury and coastal areas quite dry. A touch more rain would not go amiss, however southern areas are enjoying the sunshine and are noting a boost in lamb growth. Cooler mornings are setting in across the country, and so far, there is nothing in the forecast to suggest this autumn will not be business-as-usual.
