AgriHQ analyst Mel Croad said at current kill rates and using B+LNZ projections, there were just 3.5m lambs left to process compared to 4.7m at the corresponding time last year.
The five-year average South Island lamb kill was 10.5m.
“Since 2008-09 the South Island kill has ranged from 10m to 11.5m. Now it is looking like 9.5m.”
Part of the reason was a high early kill, which up to mid-March was 1% ahead of last year, but also ewe numbers and scanning rates were lower because of drought in parts of Canterbury.
South Island meat processors reported plants were working to capacity though Silver Fern Farms had closed it Fairton works at Ashburton for the season.
But, Croad expected demand for space would to start dropping away quite sharply given lamb forecasts.
B+LNZ Economic Service executive director Rob Davison said the projected lamb kill was tracking close to mid season forecasts and a total kill of about 9.5m.
That reflected destocking because of the Canterbury drought but also the impact of clover root weevil in the south of the South Island.
“As we see it we are pretty much on line.”
Croad said up to 30 truck and trailer units of cattle a week were crossing from the South Island to the North Island to be killed at North Island plants because southern works were working to capacity.
That was unlikely to last and there were signs space at South Island works was starting to free up ahead of an expected influx of cull dairy cows next month.
AgriHQ reported last week that in the four weeks to March 12 the national cow kill was back 18% on the previous year but was up 24% on the five-year average for that period.
The South Island cow kill was up 66% and the North Island 12% on the five-year average.
Nationally the cattle kill was 17% less than a year ago but up 3% on the five-year average.
Again the South Island season was slow, with the kill 23% behind the same time last year and down 15% in the North Island.
