Bay of Plenty and Waikato growers reported yields 10% greater than anticipated as this season’s expected El Nino turned into what some described as the best summer ever for growth.
Bill Webb of Bill Webb Feed Solutions near Te Puke said after expecting yields of 21t dry matter a hectare, he had to re-calculate harvest volumes when they touched 23-24t DM/ha.
“But despite that additional volume, the low payout and good feed levels onfarm, we have pretty much moved all the crop we were expecting.”
He had little problem with farmers walking away from maize contracts despite the payout plunge, losing only a couple who could not meet their contracted commitment on financial grounds.
The good sell-through of crop came after what Webb said had been a roller-coaster year for maize contractors.
“Back in August when the $3.85/kg milksolids payout was announced we did not expect to be selling much. But as soon as the payout lifted and there was talk of 90% odds on El Nino, demand lifted and the phone went crazy.”
All his committed maize area went and he had to source another 700ha to meet the surge.
“Then summer came, the grass grew and the payout dropped again.”
But there were no mass cancellations. Those who chose to stick with maize silage were efficient feeders, minimising their waste and maximising their milksolids output with it and continued to see the benefit in using it.
The most recent Foundation for Arable Research (FAR) data from October last year indicated the 44,500ha planted for maize silage last spring was a 24% decline in the area from the year before.
The coming farming year would have contractors feeling equally conservative about what area to plant, as prospects for a dairy recovery lengthened.
Webb had noticed more farmers were less inclined to opt for palm kernel, suspecting some “nervousness” around that feeds’ longer term prospects. Many were also carrying significant surpluses from this summer forward into winter.
“This has especially been the case in the Bay of Plenty.”
Over the Kaimai Range, Waikato maize growers harvested crops valued at 19c/kg DM standing and sold for about 25c/kg DM stacked. The standing price compared to 25c/kg DM a year ago.
FAR research manager Mike Parker said the crop yields through Waikato had been variable, depending on where rain fell. He expected the planted area would be down again this year but there were also significant areas of maize grown onfarm.
“And those that have grown maize do have a few options, including grassing over and running cattle.”
Darcy Finch of Finch Contracting near Te Awamutu said the unexpectedly higher yields had proved a bonus. He had only 25ha left to harvest and had also experienced very few cancellations on orders from farmers.
He was not expecting much shift in areas sown next year and doubted many growers would be shifting to grain over maize silage.
“That is a market which has quite an overhang already and prices there are not that great.”
FAR data indicated 14,000t of maize grain on hand in October last year, compared to only 1600t in October 2014.
Prospects for the domestic grain supply market are also overshadowed by China’s decision to scrap corn subsidies and run down its massive stockpile, rated as half the world’s total corn stockpile.
China’s domestic grain prices had been running 50% above world prices.
The move imperilled Australia’s sorghum and barley sales to China, amounting to 5.4m tonnes of barley in 2014 and 11 million tonnes of sorghum.
